ArticleEnvironmental research2021
SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence during the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy.
Article in Environmental research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave.Environmental research · 2023Article
- Host nasopharyngeal transcriptome dataset of a SARS-CoV-2 positive Italian cohort.Scientific data · 2023Article
- High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies.Technology in society · 2023Article
- COVID-19 teleassistance and teleconsultation: a matched case-control study (MIRATO project, Lombardy, Italy).Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2023Article
- Health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: infection spread and vaccination coverage in the schools of Modena province, Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 vaccination knowledge, attitudes and practices among the general population of Romania during the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic.SAGE open medicine · 2023Article
- Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Two Years in Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Long-Term Survival among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the First Three Epidemic Waves: An Observational Study in a Northern Italy Hospital.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Observational
- How the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Attendance at a Tertiary Orthopedic Center Emergency Department: A Comparison between the First and Second Waves.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Article
- Is This All COVID-19's Fault? A Study on Trainees in One of the Most Affected Italian Cities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Comparison of the characteristics, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 between first and second/third wave in a hospital setting in Lombardy: a retrospective cohort study.Internal and emergency medicine · 2022Article
- Clinical-epidemiologic variation in patients treated in the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Lambayeque, Peru: A cluster analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological health in a sample of Italian adults: A three-wave longitudinal study.Psychiatry research · 2022Article
- Improvements throughout the Three Waves of COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from 4 Million Inhabitants of North-West Italy.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- A cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among healthcare workers and residents of long-term facilities in Italy, January 2021.Journal of medical virology · 2022Article
- The determinants of the changing speed of spread of COVID-19 across Italy.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Robustness analysis for quantitative assessment of vaccination effects and SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We assessed the relation between COVID-19 waves in Italy, which was severely affected during the pandemic. We evaluated the hypothesis that a larger impact from the first wave (February-May 2020) predicts a smaller peak during the second wave (September-October 2020), in the absence of local changes in public health interventions and area-specific differences in time trends of environmental parameters. Based on publicly available data on province-specific SARS-CoV-2 infections and both crude and multivariable cubic spline regression models, we found that for provinces with the lowest incidence rates in the first wave, the incidence in the second wave increased roughly in proportion with the incidence in the first wave until an incidence of about 500-600 cases/100,000 in the first wave. Above that value, provinces with higher incidences in the first wave experienced lower incidences in the second wave. It appears that a comparatively high cumulative incidence of infection, even if far below theoretical thresholds required for herd immunity, may provide noticeable protection during the second wave. We speculate that, if real, the mechanism for this pattern could be depletion of most susceptible individuals and of superspreaders in the first wave. A population learning effect regarding cautious behavior could have also contributed. Since no area-specific variation of the national policy against the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was allowed until early November 2020, neither individual behaviors nor established or purported environmental risk factors of COVID-19, such as air pollution and meteorological factors, are likely to have confounded the inverse trends we observed in infection incidence over time.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.