ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2021
Forecasting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Empirical Data Analysis in Korea.
Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- [Analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prediction Studies in the Republic of Korea].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2025Review
- Short-term forecasting of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases in the Southern African Development Community region.African health sciences · 2022Article
- Forecasting adversities of COVID-19 waves in India using intelligent computing.Innovations in systems and software engineering · 2022Article
- Time-Series Analysis and Healthcare Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2022Article
- SARIMA Model Forecasting Performance of the COVID-19 Daily Statistics in Thailand during the Omicron Variant Epidemic.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 Case Trends Using SARIMA Models during the Third Wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Does Climate Play Any Role in COVID-19 Spreading?-An Australian Perspective.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Short-Term Forecasting of Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Malaysia Using RF-SSA Model.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
From November to December 2020, the third wave of COVID-19 cases in Korea is ongoing. The government increased Seoul's social distancing to the 2.5 level, and the number of confirmed cases is increasing daily. Due to a shortage of hospital beds, treatment is difficult. Furthermore, gatherings at the end of the year and the beginning of next year are expected to worsen the effects. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of prediction timing rather than prediction of the number of confirmed cases. Thus, in this study, five groups were set according to minimum, maximum, and high variability. Through empirical data analysis, the groups were subdivided into a total of 19 cases. The cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases is predicted using the auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and compared with the actual number of confirmed cases. Through group and case-by-case prediction, forecasts can accurately determine decreasing and increasing trends. To prevent further spread of COVID-19, urgent and strong government restrictions are needed. This study will help the government and the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) to respond systematically to a future surge in confirmed cases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.