Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33796868›Full record

ArticleNature aging2021

Disparities in the pace of biological aging among midlife adults of the same chronological age have implications for future frailty risk and policy.

Maxwell L Elliott, Avshalom Caspi, Renate M Houts, Antony Ambler, Jonathan M Broadbent, Robert J Hancox, HonaLee Harrington, Sean Hogan, Ross Keenan, Annchen Knodt and 14 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature aging, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 194 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
194citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
24.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

194 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 297 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Feasibility of lifestyle interventions for cognition in adults with low education.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025
    Trial
  4. Trial
  5. Trial
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. A generalized approach for estimating the Pace of Aging.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. An epigenetic speedometer to measure Pace of Aging: FraminghamPACE.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Functional, molecular, and digital measurements of biological age.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2026
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

134 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.

Maxwell L ElliottDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Avshalom CaspiDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Renate M HoutsDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Antony AmblerKing's College London, Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, & Neuroscience, London, UK.
Jonathan M BroadbentUniversity of Otago Faculty of Dentistry, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Robert J HancoxDepartment of Preventive and Social Medicine, Otago Medical School, University of Otago, New Zealand.
HonaLee HarringtonDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Sean HoganDunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Ross KeenanBrain Research New Zealand-Rangahau Roro Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Universities of Auckland and Otago, New Zealand.
Annchen KnodtDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Joan H LeungSchool of Psychology, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
Tracy R MelzerBrain Research New Zealand-Rangahau Roro Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Universities of Auckland and Otago, New Zealand.
Suzanne C PurdyBrain Research New Zealand-Rangahau Roro Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Universities of Auckland and Otago, New Zealand.
Sandhya RamrakhaDunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Leah S Richmond-RakerdDepartment of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Antoinette RighartsDepartment of Preventive and Social Medicine, Otago Medical School, University of Otago, New Zealand.
Karen SugdenDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
W Murray ThomsonUniversity of Otago Faculty of Dentistry, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Peter R ThorneBrain Research New Zealand-Rangahau Roro Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Universities of Auckland and Otago, New Zealand.
Benjamin S WilliamsDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Graham WilsonDunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Ahmad R HaririDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Richie PoultonDunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Terrie E MoffittDepartment of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Duke University · USUniversity of Otago · NZUniversity of Auckland · NZBrain Research New Zealand · NZKing's College London · GBPacific Radiology (New Zealand) · NZUniversity of Michigan · US

Funding

Resource Core 3 - Metabolomics CoreP30AG028716 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI Sarah B. Peskoe · 2006 to 2026
$24.6M
STALLARD Admin Supp: Predicting Future Care Needs and Costs for Individual Medicare Enrollees with Incident Suspected Alzheimer's DiseaseP30AG034424 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI SCOTT M. LYNCH · 2009 to 2026
$12.2M
Quantifying Individual Differences in Midlife Structural Brain Integrity Associated with Later AD/ADRD RiskR01AG049789 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI AHMAD R. HARIRI, TERRIE E MOFFITT · 2015 to 2026
$10.6M
Is mental disorder a preventable cause of age-related disease? The Dunedin Study.R01AG032282 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI CASPI, AVSHALOM, MOFFITT, TERRIE E · 2009 to 2025
$9.5M
Validating a 3rd-generation methylation measure of accelerated aging: DunedinPoAm4xR01AG073207 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI CASPI, AVSHALOM, MOFFITT, TERRIE E · 2022 to 2025
$2.9M
Explanations of Racial Disparities in Active LifeR03HD050374 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI LYNCH, SCOTT M · 2005 to 2006
$156k
Training in lifespan behavioral, social, and neuroscience research connecting early-life cognitive decline to late-life ADRDF99AG068432 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI ELLIOTT, MAXWELL LORENZ · 2020 to 2021
$72k
Medical Research Council MR/P005918/1NIA NIH HHS F99 AG068432NIA NIH HHS P30 AG028716NIA NIH HHS P30 AG034424NIA NIH HHS R01 AG032282NIA NIH HHS R01 AG049789NIA NIH HHS R01 AG073207NICHD NIH HHS R03 HD050374
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Some humans age faster than others. Variation in biological aging can be measured in midlife, but the implications of this variation are poorly understood. We tested associations between midlife biological aging and indicators of future frailty-risk in the Dunedin cohort of 1037 infants born the same year and followed to age 45. Participants' Pace of Aging was quantified by tracking declining function in 19 biomarkers indexing the cardiovascular, metabolic, renal, immune, dental, and pulmonary systems across ages 26, 32, 38, and 45 years. At age 45 in 2019, participants with faster Pace of Aging had more cognitive difficulties, signs of advanced brain aging, diminished sensory-motor functions, older appearance, and more pessimistic perceptions of aging. People who are aging more rapidly than same-age peers in midlife may prematurely need supports to sustain independence that are usually reserved for older adults. Chronological age does not adequately identify need for such supports.

Indexed as

FrailtyAgedAgingBrainHumansMiddle AgedPolicy

Identifiers

PMID33796868
PMCPMC8009092
OpenAlexW3136411224

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.