Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33795856›Full record

ReviewNature reviews. Immunology2021

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination.

Sarah Cobey, Daniel B Larremore, Yonatan H Grad, Marc Lipsitch

Open access · bronzeAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Nature reviews. Immunology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
70citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

70 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 133 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Complex Interplay between Population Immunity and Viral Dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review

10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Sarah CobeyDepartment of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA. cobey@uchicago.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5298-8979
Daniel B LarremoreDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
Yonatan H GradDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Marc LipsitchDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1504-9213
Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy · USHarvard University · USUniversity of Chicago · USUniversity of Colorado Boulder · US

Funding

COLLABORATIVE INFLUENZA VACCINE INNOVATION CENTER: UNIVERSAL INFLUENZA VACCINE RESEARCH75N93019C00051 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI KRAMMER, FLORIAN · 2019 to 2025
$105.4M
MIDAS Coordination CenterU24GM132013 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HOCHHEISER, HARRY S · 2019 to 2023
$8.1M
Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic DataU01CA261277 · NCI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HANAGE, WILLIAM, LIPSITCH, MARC · 2020 to 2023
$2.8M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA261277NIAID NIH HHS 75N93019C00051NIGMS NIH HHS 3U24GM132013-02S2NIGMS NIH HHS U24 GM132013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses or increasing the interval between doses, can reduce disease and mortality compared with concentrating available vaccine doses in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that the vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine-escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that, although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of viral escape from vaccine or naturally induced immunity. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence of efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.

Indexed as

Off-Label UseBiological EvolutionCOVID-19HumansImmune EvasionSARS-CoV-2VaccinationVaccinesVaccines

Identifiers

PMID33795856
PMCPMC8014893
OpenAlexW3134233973

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.