Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33793600›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

Machine learning methods to predict mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Limin Yu, Alexandra Halalau, Bhavinkumar Dalal, Amr E Abbas, Felicia Ivascu, Mitual Amin, Girish B Nair

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
46citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
5.9field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

46 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 107 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. How Will AI Shape the Future of Pandemic Response? Early Clues From Data Analytics.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025
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  19. BoXHED2.0: Scalable Boosting of Dynamic Survival Analysis.Journal of statistical software · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Limin YuDepartment of Pathology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0001-5581-7462
Alexandra HalalauDepartment of Internal Medicine, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.
Bhavinkumar DalalDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.
Amr E AbbasDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.
Felicia IvascuDepartment of General Surgery, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.
Mitual AminDepartment of Pathology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.
Girish B NairDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, MI, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-9696-4263
Beaumont Health · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people across the globe. It is associated with a high mortality rate and has created a global crisis by straining medical resources worldwide.

objectivesTo develop and validate machine-learning models for prediction of mechanical ventilation (MV) for patients presenting to emergency room and for prediction of in-hospital mortality once a patient is admitted.

methodsTwo cohorts were used for the two different aims. 1980 COVID-19 patients were enrolled for the aim of prediction ofMV. 1036 patients' data, including demographics, past smoking and drinking history, past medical history and vital signs at emergency room (ER), laboratory values, and treatments were collected for training and 674 patients were enrolled for validation using XGBoost algorithm. For the second aim to predict in-hospital mortality, 3491 hospitalized patients via ER were enrolled. CatBoost, a new gradient-boosting algorithm was applied for training and validation of the cohort.

resultsOlder age, higher temperature, increased respiratory rate (RR) and a lower oxygen saturation (SpO2) from the first set of vital signs were associated with an increased risk of MV amongst the 1980 patients in the ER. The model had a high accuracy of 86.2% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 87.8%. While, patients who required MV, had a higher RR, Body mass index (BMI) and longer length of stay in the hospital were the major features associated with in-hospital mortality. The second model had a high accuracy of 80% with NPV of 81.6%.

conclusionMachine learning models using XGBoost and catBoost algorithms can predict need for mechanical ventilation and mortality with a very high accuracy in COVID-19 patients.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAgedCOVID-19Emergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospital MortalityHumansMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsRespiration, ArtificialRetrospective StudiesVentilators, Mechanical

Identifiers

PMID33793600
PMCPMC8016242
OpenAlexW3150135197

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.