ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Is there evidence of sustained human-mosquito-human transmission of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi? A systematic literature review.Malaria journal · 2022Pooled it
- Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: A scoping review and reporting framework.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Review
- Situational analysis of malaria in Cabo Verde: From endemic control to elimination, history, cases data and challenges ahead.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Estimating the impact of imported malaria on local transmission in a near elimination setting: a case study from Bhutan.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Inference of malaria reproduction numbers in three elimination settings by combining temporal data and distance metrics.Scientific reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. These methods have been successfully used in numerous applications such as social media and earthquake modelling, but are not yet widespread in epidemiology. By using domain-specific knowledge, we can both recreate transmission curves for malaria in China and Eswatini and disentangle the proportion of cases which are imported from those that are community based.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.