Teleconnection between climate oscillations and riverine nutrient dynamics in Southeast China based on wavelet analysis.

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is mainly driven by hydrological processes; climate oscillation can affect regional water cycle processes. However, the relationship between climate oscillation and NPS pollution is still unclear, which increases the difficulty of water quality prediction and management. In this study, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet transform were adopted to investigate the teleconnection between ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon and riverine NPS load dynamics in an agricultural watershed of Southeast China from 2003 to 2016. Results showed that annual precipitation, streamflow, and riverine nutrient load increased significantly during the study period. The change point for long-term riverine TN load and TP load appeared in 2009 and 2007, respectively. Rainfall, streamflow, nutrient loads, and Niño 3.4 sea temperature (SST) shared a common periodicity of 10-16 months. The southern oscillation index (SOI) and Niño 3.4 SST shared a common periodicity of 28-36 months. Moreover, Niño 3.4 SST showed a positive correlation with riverine nutrient loads at a periodicity of 10-16 months, while SOI showed a weakly negative correlation with riverine nutrient loads at a periodicity of 28-36 months. These findings indicate that the increasing frequency of warm ENSO events would enhance the risk of nutrient export to rivers in Southeast China and more attention should be paid to large-scale climate oscillation in the prediction of agricultural nutrient pollution and management of water quality in agricultural watersheds.