Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33785456›Full record

ArticleTravel medicine and infectious disease

Mobility and COVID-19 mortality across Scandinavia: A modeling study.

Mihály Sulyok, Mark David Walker

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Travel medicine and infectious disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Mihály SulyokInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Eberhard Karls University, University Clinics Tübingen, Wilhelmstr. 27, 72074, Tübingen, Germany; Institute of Pathology and Neuropathology, Department of Pathology, Eberhard Karls University, University Clinics Tübingen, Liebermeisterstr. 8, 72076, Tübingen, Germany.
Mark David WalkerDepartment of the Natural and Built Environment, Sheffield Hallam University, Howard Street, Sheffield, S1 1WB, United Kingdom. Electronic address: mark_david_walker@yahoo.co.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn response to COVID-19, the Swedish government imposed few travel and mobility restrictions. This contrasted with its Scandinavian neighbours which implemented stringent restrictions. The influence these different approaches had on mobility, and thus on COVID-19 mortality was investigated.

methodsDatasets indicating restriction severity and community mobility were examined; Google's 'Community Movement Reports' (CMR) show activity at key location categories; the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker collates legislative restrictions into a 'Stringency Index' (SI).

resultsCMR mobility categories were negatively correlated with COVID-19 mortality. The strongest correlations were obtained by negatively time lagging mortality data, suggesting restrictions had a delayed influence. During the 'first wave' a model using SI (AIC 632.87) proved favorable to one using contemporaneous CMR data and SI (AIC 1193.84), or lagged CMR data and SI (AIC 642.35). Validation using 'second wave' data confirmed this; the model using SI solely again being optimal (RMSE: 0.2486 vs. 0.522 and 104.62). Cross-country differences were apparent in all models; Swedish data, independent of SI and CMR, proved significant throughout. There was a significant association for Sweden and the death number across models.

conclusionSI may provide a broader, more accurate, representation of changes in movement in response to COVID-19 restrictions.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlCOVID-19HumansModels, TheoreticalMovementSARS-CoV-2Scandinavian and Nordic CountriesStatistics, NonparametricSwedenTravelCOVID-19Disease transmissionMobilityStringency measures

Identifiers

PMID33785456
PMCPMC7999697

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.