ArticleMathematical biosciences2021
Lockdown measures and their impact on single- and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico.
Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- On modelling airborne infection risk.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Parameter estimation for contact tracing in graph-based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Backcasting COVID-19: a physics-informed estimate for early case incidence.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- The heterogeneous mixing model of COVID-19 with interventions.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- A Modified PINN Approach for Identifiable Compartmental Models in Epidemiology with Application to COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- A population structure-sensitive mathematical model assessing the effects of vaccination during the third surge of COVID-19 in Italy.Journal of mathematical analysis and applications · 2022Article
- Modelling of spatial infection spread through heterogeneous population: from lattice to partial differential equation models.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- An integrated simulation framework for the prevention and mitigation of pandemics caused by airborne pathogens.Network modeling and analysis in health informatics and bioinformatics · 2022Article
- An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost.PloS one · 2021Article
- Optimization in the Context of COVID-19 Prediction and Control: A Literature Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The role of lockdown measures in mitigating COVID-19 in Mexico is investigated using a comprehensive nonlinear ODE model. The model includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic populations with the latter leading to sickness (with recovery, hospitalization and death as possible outcomes). We consider situations involving the application of social-distancing and other intervention measures in the time series of interest. We find optimal parametric fits to the time series of deaths (only), as well as to the time series of deaths and cumulative infections. We discuss the merits and disadvantages of each approach, we interpret the parameters of the model and assess the realistic nature of the parameters resulting from the optimization procedure. Importantly, we explore a model involving two sub-populations (younger and older than a specific age), to more accurately reflect the observed impact as concerns symptoms and behavior in different age groups. For definiteness and to separate people that are (typically) in the active workforce, our partition of population is with respect to members younger vs. older than the age of 65. The basic reproduction number of the model is computed for both the single- and the two-population variant. Finally, we consider what would be the impact of partial lockdown (involving only the older population) and full lockdown (involving the entire population) on the number of deaths and cumulative infections.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.