Operative times in primary total hip arthroplasty will remain stable up to the year 2027: prediction models based on 85,808 cases.

purposeRecently, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid have announced the decision to review "potentially misvalued" Current Procedural Terminology codes, including those for primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). While recent studies have suggested that THA operative times have remained stable in recent years, there is an absence of information regarding how operative times are expected to change in the future. Therefore, the purpose of our analysis was to produce 2- and 10-year prediction models developed from contemporary operative time data.

methodsUtilizing the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement patient database, all primary THA procedures performed between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2017 were identified (n = 85,808 THA patients). Autocorrelation fit significance was determined through Box-Ljung lack of fit tests. Time series stationarity was evaluated using augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. After adjusting non-stationary time series for seasonality-dependent changes, 2-year and 10-year operative times were predicted using Autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models.

resultsOur models indicate that operative time will continue to remain stable. Specifically, operative time for ASA Class 2 is projected to fall within 1 min of the previously calculated weighted mean. Additionally, ASA Class 3 projections fall within 3 min of this value.

conclusionOperative time will remain within 3 min of the most recently reported mean up to the year 2027. Therefore, our findings do not support lowering physician compensation based on this metric. Future analyses should evaluate if operative times adjust over in light of changing patient demographics and alternative reimbursement models.