Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33781254›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2021

Systematic identification of plausible pathways to potential harm via problem formulation for investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive to control the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in West Africa.

John B Connolly, John D Mumford, Silke Fuchs, Geoff Turner, Camilla Beech, Ace R North, Austin Burt

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.3field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 47 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Response to "Field Trials Need Genetic Localization, Not Geographic Isolation".The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Genes drive organisms and slippery slopes.Pathogens and global health · 2024
    Review
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

John B ConnollyDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK. john.connolly12@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7033-3463
John D MumfordCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8964-1784
Silke FuchsDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8921-7422
Geoff TurnerDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Camilla BeechCambea Consulting Ltd, Reading, UK.
Ace R NorthDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4253-396X
Austin BurtDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5146-9640
Imperial College London · GBUniversity of Oxford · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPopulation suppression gene drive has been proposed as a strategy for malaria vector control. A CRISPR-Cas9-based transgene homing at the doublesex locus (dsxF

methodsBuilding on consultative workshops in Africa that previously identified relevant environmental and health protection goals for ERA of gene drive in malaria vector control, 8 potentially harmful effects from these simulated releases were identified. These were stratified into 46 plausible pathways describing the causal chain of events that would be required for potential harms to occur. Risk hypotheses to interrogate critical steps in each pathway, and an analysis plan involving experiments, modelling and literature review to test each of those risk hypotheses, were developed.

resultsMost potential harms involved increased human (n = 13) or animal (n = 13) disease transmission, emphasizing the importance to subsequent stages of ERA of data on vectorial capacity comparing transgenics to non-transgenics. Although some of the pathways (n = 14) were based on known anatomical alterations in dsxF

conclusionsModelling will play an essential role in subsequent stages of ERA by clarifying the dynamics of this relationship between population suppression and reduction in exposure to specific potential harms. This analysis represents a comprehensive identification of plausible pathways to potential harm using problem formulation for a specific gene drive transgene and organism, and a transparent communication tool that could inform future regulatory studies, guide subsequent stages of ERA, and stimulate further, broader engagement on the use of population suppression gene drive to control malaria vectors in West Africa.

Indexed as

Gene Drive TechnologyAfrica, WesternAnimalsAnimals, Genetically ModifiedAnophelesMalariaMosquito ControlMosquito VectorsTransgenesAnophelesEnvironmental risk assessment (ERA)Field releaseGene driveMalariaPathways to harmPopulation suppression gene driveProblem formulationTransgenicVector control

Identifiers

PMID33781254
PMCPMC8006393
OpenAlexW3150103396

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.