Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33779565›Full record

ArticleJMIR medical informatics2021

Machine Learning Approach to Predicting COVID-19 Disease Severity Based on Clinical Blood Test Data: Statistical Analysis and Model Development.

Sakifa Aktar, Md Martuza Ahamad, Md Rashed-Al-Mahfuz, Akm Azad, Shahadat Uddin, Ahm Kamal, Salem A Alyami, Ping-I Lin, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Julian Mw Quinn and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR medical informatics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed
10.0field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 80 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Predicting the severity of COVID-19 using machine learning methods.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 8 institutions in 3 countries.

Sakifa Aktar *Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science & Technology University, Gopalganj, Bangladesh.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8866-743X
Md Martuza Ahamad *Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science & Technology University, Gopalganj, Bangladesh.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1640-6649
Md Rashed-Al-MahfuzDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7039-6176
Akm AzadiThree Institute, Faculty of Science, University Technology of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5251-2214
Shahadat UddinComplex Systems Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Darlington, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0091-6919
Ahm KamalDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8031-666X
Salem A AlyamiDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5507-9399
Ping-I LinSchool of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9739-7184
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful IslamInstitute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Faculty of Health, Deakin University, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7926-9368
Julian Mw QuinnHealthy Ageing Theme, The Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Darlington, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9674-9646
Valsamma EapenSchool of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6296-8306
Mohammad Ali MoniSchool of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0756-1006
Garvan Institute of Medical Research · AUGopalganj Science and Technology University · BDUNSW Sydney · AUDeakin University · AUImam Mohammad ibn Saud Islamic University · SAJatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University · BDThe University of Sydney · AUUniversity of Rajshahi · BD

Funding

EPA EP-C-18-008
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAccurate prediction of the disease severity of patients with COVID-19 would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation and thereby reduce mortality risks, especially in less developed countries. Many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities, affect disease severity and can be used to aid this prediction.

objectiveBecause rapid automated profiling of peripheral blood samples is widely available, we aimed to investigate how data from the peripheral blood of patients with COVID-19 can be used to predict clinical outcomes.

methodsWe investigated clinical data sets of patients with COVID-19 with known outcomes by combining statistical comparison and correlation methods with machine learning algorithms; the latter included decision tree, random forest, variants of gradient boosting machine, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and deep learning methods.

resultsOur work revealed that several clinical parameters that are measurable in blood samples are factors that can discriminate between healthy people and COVID-19-positive patients, and we showed the value of these parameters in predicting later severity of COVID-19 symptoms. We developed a number of analytical methods that showed accuracy and precision scores >90% for disease severity prediction.

conclusionsWe developed methodologies to analyze routine patient clinical data that enable more accurate prediction of COVID-19 patient outcomes. With this approach, data from standard hospital laboratory analyses of patient blood could be used to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of mortality, thus enabling optimization of hospital facilities for COVID-19 treatment.

Indexed as

bloodblood samplesCOVID-19data setmachine learningmorbiditymortalityoutcomepredictionriskseveritystatistical analysistesting

Identifiers

PMID33779565
PMCPMC8045777
OpenAlexW3146264788

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.