Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33776143›Full record

ArticleJournal of mathematical analysis and applications2022

Complex network model for COVID-19: Human behavior, pseudo-periodic solutions and multiple epidemic waves.

Cristiana J Silva, Guillaume Cantin, Carla Cruz, Rui Fonseca-Pinto, Rui Passadouro, Estevão Soares Dos Santos, Delfim F M Torres

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of mathematical analysis and applications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Complex behavior of COVID-19's mathematical model.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Cristiana J SilvaCenter for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal.
Guillaume CantinLaboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées, FR-CNRS-3335, 25, Rue Philippe Lebon, Le Havre, Normandie 76063, France.
Carla CruzCenter for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal.
Rui Fonseca-PintoCenter for Innovative Care and Health Technology (ciTechCare), Polytechnic of Leiria, Portugal.
Rui PassadouroCenter for Innovative Care and Health Technology (ciTechCare), Polytechnic of Leiria, Portugal.
Estevão Soares Dos SantosACES Pinhal Litoral - Central Regional Health Administration (ARS Centro), Portugal.
Delfim F M TorresCenter for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to model the human behavior and the impact of public health policies on the dynamics of the curve of active infected individuals during a COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. After proving the existence and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points of the model with constant parameters, we consider a family of Cauchy problems, with piecewise constant parameters, and prove the existence of pseudo-oscillations between a neighborhood of the disease-free equilibrium and a neighborhood of the endemic equilibrium, in a biologically feasible region. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, this pseudo-periodic solutions are related to the emergence of epidemic waves. Then, to capture the impact of mobility in the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics, we propose a complex network with six distinct regions based on COVID-19 real data from Portugal. We perform numerical simulations for the complex network model, where the objective is to determine a topology that minimizes the level of active infected individuals and the existence of topologies that are likely to worsen the level of infection. We claim that this methodology is a tool with enormous potential in the current pandemic context, and can be applied in the management of outbreaks (in regional terms) but also to manage the opening/closing of borders.

Indexed as

Complex networkCOVID-19 epidemic wavesPiecewise constant parametersPortugal case studyPseudo-periodic solutions

Identifiers

PMID33776143
PMCPMC7983391

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.