Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33771862›Full record

ArticleScience advances2021

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.

Alexander Kurganskiy, Simon Creer, Natasha de Vere, Gareth W Griffith, Nicholas J Osborne, Benedict W Wheeler, Rachel N McInnes, Yolanda Clewlow, Adam Barber, Georgina L Brennan and 15 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
5.4field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 57 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. The Impact of Environmental Pollution and Climate Change on Allergic Rhinitis and Lung Diseases.World journal of otorhinolaryngology - head and neck surgery · 2026
    Review
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  17. A Review of the Respiratory Health Burden Attributable to Short-Term Exposure to Pollen.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors at 10 institutions in 6 countries.

Alexander KurganskiySchool of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK. a.kurganskiy@exeter.ac.uk c.skjoth@worc.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-6588-9387
Simon CreerSchool of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3124-3550
Natasha de VereNational Botanic Garden of Wales, Llanarthne, Carmarthenshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9593-6925
Gareth W GriffithInstitute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6914-3745
Nicholas J OsborneEuropean Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro TR1 3HD, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6700-2284
Benedict W WheelerEuropean Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro TR1 3HD, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9404-5936
Rachel N McInnesMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2046-1907
Yolanda ClewlowMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6539-1872
Adam BarberMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3908-2571
Georgina L BrennanSchool of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2045-757X
Helen M HanlonMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7006-8244
Matthew HegartyInstitute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK.
Caitlin PotterInstitute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7512-8397
Francis RowneyEuropean Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro TR1 3HD, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7986-5351
Beverley Adams-GroomSchool of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK.
Geoff M PetchSchool of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK.
Catherine H PashleyAerobiology and Clinical Mycology, Dept. of Respiratory Sciences,Institute for Lung Health, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4023-3610
Jack SatchwellAerobiology and Clinical Mycology, Dept. of Respiratory Sciences,Institute for Lung Health, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5653-8702
Letty A de WegerDepartment of Pulmonology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-9067-7407
Karen RasmussenAstma-Allergi Danmark, Roskilde, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0001-7140-2830
Gilles OliverRéseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique (R.N.S.A.), Brussieu, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5864-8147
Charlotte SindtRéseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique (R.N.S.A.), Brussieu, France.
Nicolas BruffaertsMycology and Aerobiology Service, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0001-6310-9140
PollerGEN Consortium
Carsten A SkjøthSchool of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK. a.kurganskiy@exeter.ac.uk c.skjoth@worc.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5992-9568
Aberystwyth University · GBMet Office · GBUniversity of Worcester · GBBangor University · GBNIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre · GBRéseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique · FRUniversity of Exeter · GBLeiden University Medical Center · NLSciensano (Belgium) · BEThe University of Queensland · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Identifiers

PMID33771862
PMCPMC7997511
OpenAlexW3137633377

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.