ArticlePloS one2021
A statistical analysis of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Italy and Spain.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Future worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic predictions by Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation method.Analytical science advances · 2024Article
- Influenza-type epidemic risks by spatio-temporal Gaidai-Yakimov method.Dialogues in health · 2023Article
- Capturing asymmetry in COVID-19 counts using an improved skewness measure for time series data.MethodsX · 2023Article
- Characteristics of Frailty in Perimenopausal Women with Long COVID-19.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast in Brazil.Bioinformatics and biology insights · 2023Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-reported 12-month pneumococcal vaccination series completion rates in Canada.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Beyond COVID-19: Do biothermodynamic properties allow predicting the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants?Microbial risk analysis · 2022Article
- A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden.The Annals of regional science · 2022Article
- A network analysis and support vector regression approaches for visualising and predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and BCG vaccine cross-protection in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in eastern Africa.BMC research notes · 2022Article
- Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model.Physica A · 2022Article
- Article
- Operating, financial and investment impacts of Covid-19 in SMEs: Public policy demands to sustainable recovery considering the economic sector moderating effect.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2022Article
- Identification of COVID-19 spread mechanisms based on first-wave data, simulation models, and evolutionary algorithms.PloS one · 2022Article
- Estimation of the basic reproduction number of Alpha and Delta variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.PloS one · 2022Article
- Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain.PloS one · 2022Article
- Gaidai reliability method for long-term coronavirus modelling.F1000Research · 2022Article
- Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Integro-differential approach for modeling the COVID-19 dynamics - Impact of confinement measures in Italy.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
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Abstract
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was first reported at the end of 2019 has impacted almost every aspect of life as we know it. This paper focuses on the incidence of the disease in Italy and Spain-two of the first and most affected European countries. Using two simple mathematical epidemiological models-the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model and the log-linear regression model, we model the daily and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the two countries during the early stage of the outbreak, and compute estimates for basic measures of the infectiousness of the disease including the basic reproduction number, growth rate, and doubling time. Estimates of the basic reproduction number were found to be larger than 1 in both countries, with values being between 2 and 3 for Italy, and 2.5 and 4 for Spain. Estimates were also computed for the more dynamic effective reproduction number, which showed that since the first cases were confirmed in the respective countries the severity has generally been decreasing. The predictive ability of the log-linear regression model was found to give a better fit and simple estimates of the daily incidence for both countries were computed.
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