ArticlePloS one2021
Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Beyond scale-free networks: integrating multilayer social networks with molecular clusters in the local spread of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A high-resolution flux-matrix model describes the spread of diseases in a spatial network and the effect of mitigation strategies.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Epidemiologic and Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Superspreading Event in Nightclub, the Netherlands, June 2021.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Heterogeneity in testing for infectious diseases.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A number of epidemics, including the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic of 2002-2004, have been known to exhibit superspreading, in which a small fraction of infected individuals is responsible for the majority of new infections. The existence of superspreading implies a fat-tailed distribution of infectiousness (new secondary infections caused per day) among different individuals. Here, we present a simple method to estimate the variation in infectiousness by examining the variation in early-time growth rates of new cases among different subpopulations. We use this method to estimate the mean and variance in the infectiousness, β, for SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the early stages of the pandemic within the United States. We find that σβ/μβ ≳ 3.2, where μβ is the mean infectiousness and σβ its standard deviation, which implies pervasive superspreading. This result allows us to estimate that in the early stages of the pandemic in the USA, over 81% of new cases were a result of the top 10% of most infectious individuals.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.