Carbon cycle inverse modeling suggests large changes in fractional organic burial are consistent with the carbon isotope record and may have contributed to the rise of oxygen.

Abundant geologic evidence shows that atmospheric oxygen levels were negligible until the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) at 2.4-2.1 Ga. The burial of organic matter is balanced by the release of oxygen, and if the release rate exceeds efficient oxygen sinks, atmospheric oxygen can accumulate until limited by oxidative weathering. The organic burial rate relative to the total carbon burial rate can be inferred from the carbon isotope record in sedimentary carbonates and organic matter, which provides a proxy for the oxygen source flux through time. Because there are no large secular trends in the carbon isotope record over time, it is commonly assumed that the oxygen source flux changed only modestly. Therefore, declines in oxygen sinks have been used to explain the GOE. However, the average isotopic value of carbon fluxes into the atmosphere-ocean system can evolve due to changing proportions of weathering and outgassing inputs. If so, large secular changes in organic burial would be possible despite unchanging carbon isotope values in sedimentary rocks. Here, we present an inverse analysis using a self-consistent carbon cycle model to determine the maximum change in organic burial since ~4 Ga allowed by the carbon isotope record and other geological proxies. We find that fractional organic burial may have increased by 2-5 times since the Archean. This happens because O