Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33763689›Full record

ArticleJournal of travel medicine2021

Trends of the global, regional and national incidence of malaria in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 and implications for malaria prevention.

Qiao Liu, Wenzhan Jing, Liangyu Kang, Jue Liu, Min Liu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of travel medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
64citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

64 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Qiao LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Wenzhan JingDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Liangyu KangDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Jue LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Min LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Funding

National Key Research and Development Project of China 2020YFC0849500National Natural Science Foundation of China 71934002National Science and Technology Key Projects on Prevention and Treatment of Major Infectious Disease of China 2020ZX10001002
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMalaria is a life-threatening disease worldwide, but lacks studies on its incidence at the global level. We aimed to describe global trends and regional diversities in incidence of malaria infection, to make global tailored implications for malaria prevention.

methodsWe used the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and absolute number of malaria episodes showed the epidemic status of malaria infection. The estimated annual percentage change of ASR and changes in malaria episodes quantified the malaria incidence trends. The connection between ASRs and traveller number indicated infection risk for travellers.

resultsGlobally, the malaria ASR decreased by an average 0.80% (95% confidence interval 0.58-1.02%) per year from 1990 to 2019; however, it slightly increased from 3195.32 per 100 000 in 2015 to 3247.02 per 100 000 in 2019. The incidence rate of children under 5 was higher than other age groups. A total of 40 countries had higher ASRs in 2019 than in 2015, with the largest expansion in Cabo Verde (from 2.02 per 100 000 to 597.00 per 100 000). After 2015, the ASRs in high-middle, middle and low-middle Socio-demographic Index regions began to rise and the uptrends remained in 2019. Central, Western and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASRs since 1990, and traveller number in Eastern and Western Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 31.24 and 7.58%, respectively, from 2017 to 2018. Especially, most countries with ASR over 10 000 per 100 000 had increase in traveller number from 2017 to 2018, with the highest change by 89.56% in Mozambique.

conclusionsMalaria is still a public health threat for locals and travellers in Sub-Saharan Africa and other malaria-endemic areas, especially for children under 5. There were unexpected global uptrends of malaria ASRs from 2015 to 2019. More studies are needed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination.

Indexed as

EpidemicsMalariaChildGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMozambiqueincidenceMalariapreventiontrend

Identifiers

PMID33763689
PMCPMC8271200

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.