ArticleScientific reports2021
Spatio-temporal predictive modeling framework for infectious disease spread.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Article
- Deep learning architectures for influenza dynamics and treatment optimization: a comprehensive review.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2025Review
- Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the Dynamics of COVID-19 Deaths in Peru.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Identification of Early Warning Signals of Infectious Diseases in Hospitals by Integrating Clinical Treatment and Disease Prevention.Current medical science · 2024Article
- Understanding epidemic spread patterns: a visual analysis approach.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2024Article
- Article
- Modelling the first wave of COVID-19 in India.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Monte Carlo simulation of COVID-19 pandemic using Planck's probability distribution.Bio Systems · 2022Article
- City-Scale Agent-Based Simulators for the Study of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in the Context of the COVID-19 Epidemic: IISc-TIFR COVID-19 City-Scale Simulation Team.Journal of the Indian Institute of Science · 2020Review
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2 authors.
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Abstract
A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high-dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a high-dimensional space and its evolution over all the directions is described by a population balance equation (PBE). New infections are introduced among the susceptible population from a non-quarantined infected population based on their interaction, adherence to distancing norms, hygiene levels and any other societal interventions. Moreover, recovery, death, immunity and all aforementioned parameters are modeled on the high-dimensional space. To epitomize the capabilities and features of the above framework, prognostic estimates of Covid-19 spread using a six-dimensional (time, 2D space, infection severity, duration of infection, and population age) PBE is presented. Further, scenario analysis for different policy interventions and population behavior is presented, throwing more insights into the spatio-temporal spread of infections across duration of disease, infection severity and age of the population. These insights could be used for science-informed policy planning.
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