ReviewBMJ global health2021
A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making.
Review in BMJ global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.BMJ global health · 2022Pooled it
- Capacity for national health policy modelling, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Strategies to support implementation of infectious disease decision support systems: a scoping review.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- Community participatory approaches in infectious disease dynamic transmission modelling: a scoping review protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Framework to guide the use of mathematical modelling in evidence-based policy decision-making.BMJ open · 2025Review
- The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Lessons learned from COVID-19 modelling efforts for policy decision-making in lower- and middle-income countries.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Building citizen science intelligence for outbreak preparedness and response: a mixed-method study in nine countries to assess knowledge, readiness and feasibility.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Learning From COVID-19: What Would It Take to Be Better Prepared in the Eastern Mediterranean Region?JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Multimodal approach to public health interventions using EGG and mobile health technologies.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Review
- Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.eLife · 2023Article
- Leveraging Responsible, Explainable, and Local Artificial Intelligence Solutions for Clinical Public Health in the Global South.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A call for citizen science in pandemic preparedness and response: beyond data collection.BMJ global health · 2022Review
- WHO's support for COVID-19 research and knowledge management in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Addressing the real trajectory of COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean region - Authors' reply.Lancet (London, England) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office recognised the importance of epidemiological modelling to forecast the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to support decisions guiding the implementation of response measures. We established a modelling support team to facilitate the application of epidemiological modelling analyses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries. Here, we present an innovative, stepwise approach to participatory modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic that engaged decision-makers and public health professionals from countries throughout all stages of the modelling process. Our approach consisted of first identifying the relevant policy questions, collecting country-specific data and interpreting model findings from a decision-maker's perspective, as well as communicating model uncertainty. We used a simple modelling methodology that was adaptable to the shortage of epidemiological data, and the limited modelling capacity, in our region. We discuss the benefits of using models to produce rapid decision-making guidance for COVID-19 control in the WHO EMR, as well as challenges that we have experienced regarding conveying uncertainty associated with model results, synthesising and comparing results across multiple modelling approaches, and modelling fragile and conflict-affected states.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.