ArticleNonlinear dynamics2021
Mechanisms of recurrent outbreak of COVID-19: a model-based study.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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19 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Monitoring Sleep Quality Through Low α-Band Activity in the Prefrontal Cortex Using a Portable Electroencephalogram Device: Longitudinal Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Shared oscillatory mechanisms of alpha-band activity in prefrontal regions in eyes open and closed state using a portable EEG acquisition device.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Exploring COVID-19 Phobia among International Chinese College Students in South Korea Before Ending COVID-19 Restrictions.BMC psychology · 2024Article
- Temporal features of goals, substitutions, and fouls in football games in the five major European league from 2018 to 2021.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Temporal dynamic effects of meteorological factors and air quality on the physical health of the older adults in Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Temporal dynamic characteristics of human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 around the world under the COVID-19 pandemic background.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan.Cities (London, England) · 2023Article
- Changes in Temporal Properties of Notifiable Infectious Disease Epidemics in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Population-Based Surveillance Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Oscillatory properties of class C notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2009 to 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Research on Monetary Policy Implementation and Industrial Structure Transformation Under COVID-19-Evidence From Eight Economic Zones in Mainland China.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Stochastic forecasting of COVID-19 daily new cases across countries with a novel hybrid time series model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- Knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) towards COVID-19 pandemic among pregnant women in a tertiary hospital in Karachi, Pakistan.PloS one · 2022Article
- The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- The effect of human settlement temperature and humidity on the growth rules of infected and recovered cases of COVID-19.Environmental research · 2021Article
- Enlightenment on oscillatory properties of 23 class B notifiable infectious diseases in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2020.PloS one · 2021Article
- Synchronized nonpharmaceutical interventions for the control of COVID-19.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recurrent outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in many countries around the world. We developed a twofold framework in this study, which is composed by one novel descriptive model to depict the recurrent global outbreaks of COVID-19 and one dynamic model to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of recurrent outbreaks. We used publicly available data of cumulative infected cases from 1 January 2020 to 2 January 2021 in 30 provinces in China and 43 other countries around the world for model validation and further analyses. These time series data could be well fitted by the new descriptive model. Through this quantitative approach, we discovered two main mechanisms that strongly correlate with the extent of the recurrent outbreak: the sudden increase in cases imported from overseas and the relaxation of local government epidemic prevention policies. The compartmental dynamical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Dead and Recovered (SEIDR) Model) could reproduce the obvious recurrent outbreak of the epidemics and showed that both imported infected cases and the relaxation of government policies have a causal effect on the emergence of a new wave of outbreak, along with variations in the temperature index. Meanwhile, recurrent outbreaks affect consumer confidence and have a significant influence on GDP. These results support the necessity of policies such as travel bans, testing of people upon entry, and consistency of government prevention and control policies in avoiding future waves of epidemics and protecting economy.
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