ArticleScientific reports2021
Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers.
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Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed.
- Extracellular Vesicles as Molecular Regulators of Viral Infection: Implications for COVID-19 and Future Viral Pandemics.Current issues in molecular biology · 2026Review
- Impact of opinion dynamics on recurrent pandemic waves: balancing risk aversion and peer pressure.Interface focus · 2025Article
- Comparative analysis of humoral immunity kinetics following three COVID-19 vaccines in a multi-ethnic cohort of medical students and healthcare professionals across Malaysia.Scientific reports · 2025Observational
- Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic waves.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Paranoia affected COVID-19 vaccine refusal by increasing beliefs in conspiracy theories and mistrust of science.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
- Study on the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and agent disease risk simulation model based on individual factors in Xi'an City.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- User experiences of patients with post-acute COVID-19 syndrome receiving occupational therapy telerehabilitation.Frontiers in human neuroscience · 2025Article
- The Behaviour of IL-6 and Its Soluble Receptor Complex during Different Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Article
- Differences in the Clinical Severity Scores of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients across Different Phases of an Epidemic Wave in Iran: a Secondary Analysis.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2024Article
- Description of the COVID-19 epidemiology in Malaysia.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19.European economic review · 2023Article
- A pandemic momentum index to manage the spread of COVID-19.Technological forecasting and social change · 2023Article
- Proof of concept of the potential of a machine learning algorithm to extract new information from conventional SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR results.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Decoding the double trouble: A mathematical modelling of co-infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza-like illness.Bio Systems · 2023Article
- COVID-19 multiwaves as multiphase percolation: a general N-sigmoidal equation to model the spread.European physical journal plus · 2023Article
- Challenges of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in India during low positivity rate scenario.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Spatial risk for a superspreading environment: Insights from six urban facilities in six global cities across four continents.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant resulted in a rapid spike and decline as highlighted by municipal wastewater surveillance.Environmental technology & innovation · 2022Article
- The quantification of vaccine uptake in the Nordic countries and impact on key indicators of COVID-19 severity and healthcare stress level via age range comparative analysis.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grows linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.
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