Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33752751›Full record

Observational studyInfectious diseases of poverty2021

Geospatial epidemiology of leprosy in northwest Bangladesh: a 20-year retrospective observational study.

Caroline A Bulstra, David J Blok, Khorshed Alam, C Ruth Butlin, Johan Chandra Roy, Bob Bowers, Peter Nicholls, Sake J de Vlas, Jan Hendrik Richardus

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Observational
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. [Epidemiology of leprosy in Chad from 2015 to 2019].The Pan African medical journal · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Caroline A BulstraDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. c.bulstra@erasmusmc.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3397-2944
David J BlokDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Khorshed AlamRural Health Programme, The Leprosy Mission International Bangladesh, Nilphamari, Bangladesh.
C Ruth ButlinThe Leprosy Mission England and Wales, Goldhay Way, Orton Goldhay, Peterborough, England.
Johan Chandra RoyRural Health Programme, The Leprosy Mission International Bangladesh, Nilphamari, Bangladesh.
Bob BowersMenzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia.
Peter Nicholls, Southampton, UK.
Sake J de VlasDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Jan Hendrik RichardusDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLeprosy is known to be unevenly distributed between and within countries. High risk areas or 'hotspots' are potential targets for preventive interventions, but the underlying epidemiologic mechanisms that enable hotspots to emerge, are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified and characterized leprosy hotspots in Bangladesh, a country with one of the highest leprosy endemicity levels globally.

methodsWe used data from four high-endemic districts in northwest Bangladesh including 20 623 registered cases between January 2000 and April 2019 (among ~ 7 million population). Incidences per union (smallest administrative unit) were calculated using geospatial population density estimates. A geospatial Poisson model was used to detect incidence hotspots over three (overlapping) 10-year timeframes: 2000-2009, 2005-2014 and 2010-2019. Ordinal regression models were used to assess whether patient characteristics were significantly different for cases outside hotspots, as compared to cases within weak (i.e., relative risk (RR) of one to two), medium (i.e., RR of two to three), and strong (i.e., RR higher than three) hotspots.

resultsNew case detection rates dropped from 44/100 000 in 2000 to 10/100 000 in 2019. Statistically significant hotspots were identified during all timeframes and were often located at areas with high population densities. The RR for leprosy was up to 12 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots than for people living outside hotspots. Within strong hotspots (1930 cases among less than 1% of the population), significantly more child cases (i.e., below 15 years of age) were detected, indicating recent transmission. Cases in hotspots were not significantly more likely to be detected actively.

conclusionsLeprosy showed a heterogeneous distribution with clear hotspots in northwest Bangladesh throughout a 20-year period of decreasing incidence. Findings confirm that leprosy hotspots represent areas of higher transmission activity and are not solely the result of active case finding strategies.

Indexed as

LeprosyBangladeshChildHumansIncidenceRetrospective StudiesRiskEpidemiologyGeospatialHotspotsLeprosyNeglected tropical diseasesPatient characteristics

Identifiers

PMID33752751
PMCPMC7986508

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.