ArticleBMC medical research methodology2021
Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models: a guide for evaluating large-scale health interventions.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 337 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
337 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Transfer-workflow optimization in a regional chest pain center network reduces door-in-door-out time in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: An interrupted time-series study with spectral validation.International journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature · 2026Article
- Effect of a Multi-specialty E-consultation Service on Hospital Referrals: An Interrupted Time-Series Study in the Netherlands.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Interpreting Policy Effects on Multidisciplinary Kidney Care: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Diagnostics and the Late Referral Denominator.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2026Article
- Temporal Associations and Heterogeneity of Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) Payment Reform with Hospitalization Costs Among Patients with Colorectal Cancer in China.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Virtual Care Expansion and Physician Follow-Up Among Youth With First Mental Health Contact Through a Hospital: Population-Based Repeated Cross-Sectional Study.JMIR mental health · 2026Article
- Epidemiology of Pediatric Invasive Group A Streptococcal Infections in 10 US States, 2004-2023.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Anxiety disorders in China and G20 countries: A comparative burden study.The Journal of international medical research · 2026Article
- Remote Services, Benefits, and Program Retention Changes Among Young Children in WIC.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Health service utilization by people with psychosis during Peru's mental health reform and the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- COPD burden trends in China and G20 countries from GBD 2023 and Mendelian randomization.iScience · 2026Article
- A seasonally explicit counterfactual framework reveals incomplete turbidity recovery in a tropical river seven years after a major mine-tailings disaster.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2026Article
- Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis and trend prediction of epilepsy disease burden in China, 1990-2021.Epileptic disorders : international epilepsy journal with videotape · 2026Article
- The growing burden of dementia in Asia: Comparative insights from Japan, China, and India.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026Article
- Periodontal Disease Burden in China and G20 Nations: Insights From the Global Burden of Disease 2023 Study.International dental journal · 2026Article
- Changes in Bullying Victimization Among High School Students in the United States, 2009-2023: Role of the COVID-19 Pandemic.The Journal of school health · 2026Article
- its2s: a Python package for two-stage interrupted time series analysis using machine learning.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Impact of a free medication policy on blood pressure among older patients with hypertension: an interrupted time series analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Partisan and Geographic Variation in Emotional Responses to COVID-19 Vaccination on Social Media.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Changes in Pregabalin Dispensing to Australians with Workers' Compensation Claims for Low Back Pain Following the Listing of Pregabalin on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.Journal of occupational rehabilitation · 2026Article
277 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundInterrupted time series analysis is increasingly used to evaluate the impact of large-scale health interventions. While segmented regression is a common approach, it is not always adequate, especially in the presence of seasonality and autocorrelation. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is an alternative method that can accommodate these issues.
methodsWe describe the underlying theory behind ARIMA models and how they can be used to evaluate population-level interventions, such as the introduction of health policies. We discuss how to select the shape of the impact, the model selection process, transfer functions, checking model fit, and interpretation of findings. We also provide R and SAS code to replicate our results.
resultsWe illustrate ARIMA modelling using the example of a policy intervention to reduce inappropriate prescribing. In January 2014, the Australian government eliminated prescription refills for the 25 mg tablet strength of quetiapine, an antipsychotic, to deter its prescribing for non-approved indications. We examine the impact of this policy intervention on dispensing of quetiapine using dispensing claims data.
conclusionsARIMA modelling is a useful tool to evaluate the impact of large-scale interventions when other approaches are not suitable, as it can account for underlying trends, autocorrelation and seasonality and allows for flexible modelling of different types of impacts.
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