ArticleNature communications2021
Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 117 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
117 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 183 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children and young people in households and schools: A meta-analysis of population-based and contact-tracing studies.The Journal of infection · 2022Pooled it
- Using secondary cases to characterize the severity of an emerging or re-emerging infection.Nature communications · 2021Pooled it
- Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Pooled it
- Factors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2021Pooled it
- Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA pediatrics · 2021Pooled it
- Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2020Pooled it
- COVID-19 and schools. Guidelines of the French Pediatric Society.Archives de pediatrie : organe officiel de la Societe francaise de pediatrie · 2020Guideline
- Absolute humidity drives seasonal influenza A transmission in Hong Kong through social contact modulation: Evidence from compartmental modeling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Implications for distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance from Italian post-pandemic social contact data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Revisiting the need for innovative oral hydration technologies.Frontiers in nutrition · 2026Review
- Article
- Effect of vitamin C supplement in treatment of childhood pneumonia requiring hospitalization: a randomized controlled trial.Clinical and experimental pediatrics · 2025Article
- Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity.Heliyon · 2025Article
- A modeling study to define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Integrating Contact Tracing Data to Enhance Outbreak Phylodynamic Inference: A Deep Learning Approach.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Article
57 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
- Erratum issued
- Update of
Authors and funding
29 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.