ReviewAnnual reviews in control2021
A time-modulated Hawkes process to model the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of countermeasures.
Review in Annual reviews in control, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Using a latent Hawkes process for epidemiological modelling.PloS one · 2023Article
- Tracking machine learning models for pandemic scenarios: a systematic review of machine learning models that predict local and global evolution of pandemics.Network modeling and analysis in health informatics and bioinformatics · 2022Review
- Data-driven methods for present and future pandemics: Monitoring, modelling and managing.Annual reviews in control · 2021Review
- COVID-19 epidemic control using short-term lockdowns for collective gain.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific characteristics of the novel coronavirus, to capture the impact of undetected, asymptomatic and super-diffusive individuals, and especially to take into account time-varying counter-measures and detection efforts. Yet, it is simple enough to allow scalable and efficient computation of the temporal evolution of the epidemic, and exploration of what-if scenarios. Compared to traditional compartmental models, our approach allows a more faithful description of virus specific features, such as distributions for the time spent in stages, which is crucial when the time-scale of control (e.g., mobility restrictions) is comparable to the lifetime of a single infection. We apply the model to the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Italy, shedding light onto several effects related to mobility restrictions introduced by the government, and to the effectiveness of contact tracing and mass testing performed by the national health service.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.