ArticleInfectious diseases and therapy2021
Evaluating Clinical Efficacy of Antiviral Therapy for COVID-19: A Surrogate Endpoint Approach.
Article in Infectious diseases and therapy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing efficacy of antiviral therapy for COVID-19 patients: A case study on remdesivir with bayesian synthesis design and multistate analysis.Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi · 2021Article
- Economic evaluation for mass vaccination against COVID-19.Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi · 2021Article
- Review of epidemic, containment strategies, clinical management, and economic evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi · 2021Review
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionEfficient evaluation with an early surrogate endpoint, taking into account the process of disease evolution, may not only clarify inconsistent or underpowered results but also provide a new insight into the exploration of a new antiviral therapy for treating COVID-19 patients.
methodsWe assessed the dynamics of COVID-19 disease spectrum, commencing from low-risk (no or low oxygen supplement), medium-risk (non-invasive ventilator or high oxygen supplement), and high-risk (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or invasive ventilator) risk state on enrollment, and then the subsequent progression and regression of risk states until discharge or death. The efficacy of antiviral therapy in altering the dynamics was assessed by using the high-risk state as a surrogate endpoint based on the data retrieved from the two-arm Adaptive Covid-19 Treatment Trial.
resultsUsing the high-risk state as a surrogate endpoint, remdesivir treatment led to a decrease in the high-risk COVID-19 state by 34.8% (95% CI 26.7-42.0%) for a 14-day period and 29.3% (95% CI 28.8-29.8%) up to 28 days, which were consistent with a statistically significant reduction of death by 30.5% (95% CI 6.6, 50.9%) up to a 28-day period. The estimates of numbers needed to be treated were 100.9 (95% CI 88.1, 115.7) for using the high-risk COVID-19 state as a surrogate endpoint for a 14-day period and 133.3 (95% CI 112.5, 158.0) were required for averting one death from COVID-19 up to 28 days.
conclusionsWe demonstrate the expedient use of the high-risk COVID-19 disease status as a surrogate endpoint for evaluating the primary outcome of the earliest death.
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