ArticleScientific reports2021
Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- The effect of smaller classes on infection-related school absence: evidence from the Project STAR randomized controlled trial.BMC public health · 2024Trial
- Article
- Unintended consequences of measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Article
- A descriptive study of COVID-19 cases in primary and secondary schools in the Maltese islands: a nationwide experience.European journal of public health · 2023Article
- Article
- A Longitudinal Cohort Study of Youth Mental Health and Substance use Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ontario, Canada: An Exploratory Analysis.Canadian journal of psychiatry. Revue canadienne de psychiatrie · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Exposure quantification based on ventilation, infection prevalence, group characteristics, and behavior.Science advances · 2022Article
- Unintended consequences of measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Covid-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Easy-to-use tool to quantify exposure based on airflow, group behavior, and infection prevalence in the community.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza among primary school students in Matsumoto city, Japan.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Exploring the epidemiological changes of common respiratory viruses since the COVID-19 pandemic: a hospital study in Hangzhou, China.Archives of virology · 2021Article
- A review of mathematical model-based scenario analysis and interventions for COVID-19.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2021Review
- COVID-19 in schools: Mitigating classroom clusters in the context of variable transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Impact of Changes in Infection Control Measures on the Dynamics of COVID-19 Infections in Schools and Pre-schools.Frontiers in public health · 2021Observational
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Article
- Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2-5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.
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