ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 88 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
88 citing papers in PubMed.
- Targeting Zoonotic Spillover Drivers for Global Pandemic Prevention: A Narrative Review.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Article
- torchtree: Flexible Phylogenetic Model Development and Inference Using PyTorch.Systematic biology · 2026Article
- Self-perceived quality of life, health, and physical activity among older adults: the roles of marital status and residence during the COVID-19 pandemic.Croatian medical journal · 2026Article
- Review
- The Data are Insufficient to Confidently Root the SARS-CoV-2 Phylogenetic Tree.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Squirrel: Reconstructing Semi-directed Phylogenetic Level-1 Networks from Four-Leaved Networks or Sequence Alignments.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Hybrid analysis with phylogeny and population modeling to estimate the recent founding date of a population: A case study in the origins of COVID-19 illustrates how a branching process approximation can simplify a hybrid analysis.Mathematical biosciences · 2025Article
- Scalable Epidemic Simulation Using FAVITES-Lite.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2025Article
- Recombination across distant coronavirid species and genera is a rare event with distinct genomic features.Journal of virology · 2024Article
- Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.Cell · 2024Article
- Random-Effects Substitution Models for Phylogenetics via Scalable Gradient Approximations.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- Classification of a Massive Number of Viral Genomes and Estimation of Time of Most Recent Common Ancestor (tMRCA) of SARS-CoV-2 Using Phylodynamic Analysis.Bio-protocol · 2024Article
- Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Evolutionary trajectory of diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants at the beginning of COVID-19 outbreak.Virus evolution · 2024Article
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.Nature communications · 2023Article
- An ncRNA transcriptomics-based approach to design siRNA molecules against SARS-CoV-2 double membrane vesicle formation and accessory genes.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Development of an EBOV MiniG plus system as an advanced tool for anti-Ebola virus drug screening.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
28 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We used a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated before the time of the most recent common ancestor of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that more than two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.