Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33736921›Full record

ArticleVaccine2021

Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups.

Manish Sadarangani, Bahaa Abu Raya, Jessica M Conway, Sarafa A Iyaniwura, Rebeca Cardim Falcao, Caroline Colijn, Daniel Coombs, Soren Gantt

Open access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
6.4field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 72 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Immune aging and infectious diseases.Chinese medical journal · 2024
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Observational
  14. Early impact of COVID-19 vaccination on older populations in four countries of the Americas, 2021.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Manish SadaranganiDepts. of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Depts. of Microbiology and Immunology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Vaccine Evaluation Center, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; BC Children's Hospital Research Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Bahaa Abu RayaDepts. of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Vaccine Evaluation Center, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; BC Children's Hospital Research Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Jessica M ConwayDept. of Mathematics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Sarafa A IyaniwuraDepts. of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Depts. of the Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Rebeca Cardim FalcaoDepts. of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Depts. of the Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Caroline ColijnDept. of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada.
Daniel CoombsDepts. of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Depts. of the Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Electronic address: coombs@math.ubc.ca.
Soren GanttDept of Microbiology, Immunology and Infectious Diseases, University of Montréal and the CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center, Montréal, QC, Canada.
University of British Columbia · CACentre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine · CAPennsylvania State University · USSimon Fraser University · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

importanceAn effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will reduce morbidity and mortality and allow substantial relaxation of physical distancing policies. However, the ability of a vaccine to prevent infection or disease depends critically on protecting older individuals, who are at highest risk of severe disease.

objectiveWe quantitatively estimated the relative benefits of COVID-19 vaccines, in terms of preventing infection and death, with a particular focus on effectiveness in elderly people.

designWe applied compartmental mathematical modelling to determine the relative effects of vaccines that block infection and onward transmission, and those that prevent severe disease. We assumed that vaccines showing high efficacy in adults would be deployed, and examined the effects of lower vaccine efficacy among the elderly population. SETTING AND

participantsOur mathematical model was calibrated to simulate the course of an epidemic among the entire population of British Columbia, Canada. Within our model, the population was structured by age and levels of contact. MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): We assessed the effectiveness of possible vaccines in terms of the predicted number of infections within the entire population, and deaths among people aged 65 years and over.

resultsIn order to reduce the overall rate of infections in the population, high rates of deployment to all age groups will be critical. However, to substantially reduce mortality among people aged 65 years and over, a vaccine must directly protect a high proportion of people in that group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Effective vaccines deployed to a large fraction of the population are projected to substantially reduce infection in an otherwise susceptible population. However, even if transmission were blocked highly effectively by vaccination of children and younger adults, overall mortality would not be substantially reduced unless the vaccine is also directly protective in elderly people. We strongly recommend: (i) the inclusion of people aged 65 years and over in future trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates; (ii) careful monitoring of vaccine efficacy in older age groups following vaccination.

Indexed as

Age FactorsAgedBritish ColumbiaCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHumansPandemicsCOVID-19 VaccinesAge-structured effectivenessCovid-19 diseaseCovid-19 vaccineMathematical model

Identifiers

PMID33736921
PMCPMC7938751
OpenAlexW3133849500

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.