ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Optimal timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- In silico models in oncology, neurology, and epidemiology: systems-level and multiscale perspectives.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2026Review
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Is a tiered restrictions system an effective intervention for COVID-19 control? Results from Portugal, November-December 2020.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Confinement tonicity on epidemic spreading.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Ethical dilemma arises from optimizing interventions for epidemics in heterogeneous populations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Evidence ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures.Health care management science · 2023Article
- Article
- Minimizing the epidemic final size while containing the infected peak prevalence in SIR systems.Automatica : the journal of IFAC, the International Federation of Automatic Control · 2022Article
- Adaptive network modeling of social distancing interventions.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease.Epidemics · 2021Article
- The Impact of Contact Structure and Mixing on Control Measures and Disease-Induced Herd Immunity in Epidemic Models: A Mean-Field Model Perspective.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Covid-19 and Flattening the Curve: A Feedback Control Perspective.IEEE control systems letters · 2021Article
- Optimizing time-limited non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 outbreak control.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Optimal timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The interventions and outcomes in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are highly varied. The disease and the interventions both impose costs and harm on society. Some interventions with particularly high costs may only be implemented briefly. The design of optimal policy requires consideration of many intervention scenarios. In this paper we investigate the optimal timing of interventions that are not sustainable for a long period. Specifically, we look at at the impact of a single short-term non-repeated intervention (a "one-shot intervention") on an epidemic and consider the impact of the intervention's timing. To minimize the total number infected, the intervention should start close to the peak so that there is minimal rebound once the intervention is stopped. To minimise the peak prevalence, it should start earlier, leading to initial reduction and then having a rebound to the same prevalence as the pre-intervention peak rather than one very large peak. To delay infections as much as possible (as might be appropriate if we expect improved interventions or treatments to be developed), earlier interventions have clear benefit. In populations with distinct subgroups, synchronized interventions are less effective than targeting the interventions in each subcommunity separately.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.