Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33734349›Full record

ArticleGenetics2021

Why genetic selection to reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases is way more promising than currently believed.

Andries D Hulst, Mart C M de Jong, Piter Bijma

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genetics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
7.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 42 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Age-structured next generation matrix and RInfectious Disease Modelling · 2026
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Application of Genomic Selection in Beef Cattle Disease Prevention.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Functional Variants Associated WithFrontiers in genetics · 2022
    Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Andries D HulstQuantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University & Research, 6700AH, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Mart C M de JongQuantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University & Research, 6700AH, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Piter BijmaAnimal Breeding and Genomics Group, Wageningen University & Research, 6700AH, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Wageningen University & Research · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Genetic selection for improved disease resistance is an important part of strategies to combat infectious diseases in agriculture. Quantitative genetic analyses of binary disease status, however, indicate low heritability for most diseases, which restricts the rate of genetic reduction in disease prevalence. Moreover, the common liability threshold model suggests that eradication of an infectious disease via genetic selection is impossible because the observed-scale heritability goes to zero when the prevalence approaches zero. From infectious disease epidemiology, however, we know that eradication of infectious diseases is possible, both in theory and practice, because of positive feedback mechanisms leading to the phenomenon known as herd immunity. The common quantitative genetic models, however, ignore these feedback mechanisms. Here, we integrate quantitative genetic analysis of binary disease status with epidemiological models of transmission, aiming to identify the potential response to selection for reducing the prevalence of endemic infectious diseases. The results show that typical heritability values of binary disease status correspond to a very substantial genetic variation in disease susceptibility among individuals. Moreover, our results show that eradication of infectious diseases by genetic selection is possible in principle. These findings strongly disagree with predictions based on common quantitative genetic models, which ignore the positive feedback effects that occur when reducing the transmission of infectious diseases. Those feedback effects are a specific kind of Indirect Genetic Effects; they contribute substantially to the response to selection and the development of herd immunity (i.e., an effective reproduction ratio less than one).

Indexed as

Disease ResistanceModels, GeneticSelection, GeneticAnimalsCommunicable DiseasesGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenetic VariationImmunity, HerdLivestockPrevalenceQuantitative Trait, Heritableepidemiologyheritabilityindirect genetic effectinfectious diseasequantitative geneticsresponse to selection

Identifiers

PMID33734349
PMCPMC8049556
OpenAlexW3130938229

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.