ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2021
Comparison of Decision Modeling Approaches for Health Technology and Policy Evaluation.
Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Health Economic Evaluations of Circulating Tumor DNA Testing for Cancer Screening: Systematic Review.Cancer medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Synthesized economic evidence on the cost-effectiveness of screening familial hypercholesterolemia.Global health research and policy · 2024Pooled it
- The conceptualisation of cardiometabolic disease policy model in the UK.BMC health services research · 2024Pooled it
- Economic evaluation of germline genetic testing for breast cancer in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMC cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Can polygenic risk scores contribute to cost-effective cancer screening? A systematic review.Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics · 2022Pooled it
- Beyond the States: Developing a Discrete Event Simulation Model Using R.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Review
- Individualized Treatment Rules Based on Cost-Effectiveness Criteria in Microsimulations.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Comparing the Influence of Heterogeneity on Model Outcomes in Individual-Level and Cohort Simulations: An Exploratory Simulation Study.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- The economic imperative of artificial intelligence in maternal and neonatal health: a review of evaluation benefits, frameworks, challenges, future perspectives, and limitations.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Review
- External fixation versus amputation in the treatment of ulcerated diabetic foot: a cost-utility analysis using real-world data and a discrete-event simulation model.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Article
- Economic evaluation of school scoliosis screening in Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture, Gansu Province: a cost-utility analysis based on decision tree-Markov model.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Cost-utility Analysis of R-CHOP vs CHOP in Patients with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma: A Systematic Review.Acta medica Philippina · 2026Article
- Weight Status Transitions and Validation of an Obesity Model for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Children and Adolescents.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of ten commonly used antipsychotics in first-episode schizophrenia in the UK: economic evaluation based on aThe British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science · 2025Article
- Modeling Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for Policy and Decision Analysis.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for chronic kidney disease among the general population and adults with diabetes in China: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Estimation of lifetime costs for patients receiving a transplant: the case of liver transplantation related to hepatitis B in Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Extracorporeal Photopheresis in Patients With Chronic Graft-vs-Host Disease.Journal of health economics and outcomes research · 2024Article
- The cost-effectiveness of pegcetacoplan in complement treatment-naïve adults with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria in the USA.Journal of comparative effectiveness research · 2023Article
- Development, Testing, and Calibration of LINCS: A New Microsimulation Model of Maternal and Fetal Cytomegalovirus Infection in the United States.MDM policy & practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We discuss tradeoffs and errors associated with approaches to modeling health economic decisions. Through an application in pharmacogenomic (PGx) testing to guide drug selection for individuals with a genetic variant, we assessed model accuracy, optimal decisions, and computation time for an identical decision scenario modeled 4 ways: using 1) coupled-time differential equations (DEQ), 2) a cohort-based discrete-time state transition model (MARKOV), 3) an individual discrete-time state transition microsimulation model (MICROSIM), and 4) discrete event simulation (DES). Relative to DEQ, the net monetary benefit for PGx testing (v. a reference strategy of no testing) based on MARKOV with rate-to-probability conversions using commonly used formulas resulted in different optimal decisions. MARKOV was nearly identical to DEQ when transition probabilities were embedded using a transition intensity matrix. Among stochastic models, DES model outputs converged to DEQ with substantially fewer simulated patients (1 million) v. MICROSIM (1 billion). Overall, properly embedded Markov models provided the most favorable mix of accuracy and runtime but introduced additional complexity for calculating cost and quality-adjusted life year outcomes due to the inclusion of "jumpover" states after proper embedding of transition probabilities. Among stochastic models, DES offered the most favorable mix of accuracy, reliability, and speed.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.