ArticleNPJ digital medicine2021
Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission.
Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Community vulnerability to the COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative synthesis from an ecological perspective.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- Integrating Internet multisource big data to predict the occurrence and development of COVID-19 cryptic transmission.NPJ digital medicine · 2022Article
- Spatial congruency or mismatch? Analyzing the COVID-19 potential infection risk and urban density as businesses reopen.Cities (London, England) · 2022Article
- The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach.Empirical economics · 2022Article
- COVID-19 economic policy effects on consumer spending and foot traffic in the U.S.Journal of safety science and resilience = An quan ke xue yu ren xing (Ying wen) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county's average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1-1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.