Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33716331›Full record

ReviewBulletin of the World Health Organization2021

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data.

John P A Ioannidis

Abstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 219 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
219citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

219 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Predictive scores for the diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism in COVID-19: A systematic review.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022
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  6. SARS-CoV-2-neutralising monoclonal antibodies for treatment of COVID-19.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021
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  9. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020
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  13. Dissociative symptoms during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic situation in mental health patients.Borderline personality disorder and emotion dysregulation · 2026
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159 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

John P A IoannidisMeta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from seroprevalence data.

methodsI searched PubMed and preprint servers for COVID-19 seroprevalence studies with a sample size ≥ 500 as of 9 September 2020. I also retrieved additional results of national studies from preliminary press releases and reports. I assessed the studies for design features and seroprevalence estimates. I estimated the infection fatality rate for each study by dividing the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected in each region. I corrected for the number of immunoglobin (Ig) types tested (IgG, IgM, IgA).

findingsI included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118-500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people younger than 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.

conclusionThe infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.

Indexed as

COVID-19HumansSARS-CoV-2Seroepidemiologic Studies

Identifiers

PMID33716331
PMCPMC7947934

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.