ArticleScientific reports2021
Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- The optimal spatially-dependent control measures to effectively and economically eliminate emerging infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Data-Driven Deep Learning Neural Networks for Predicting the Number of Individuals Infected by COVID-19 Omicron Variant.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- An algebraic formula, deep learning and a novel SEIR-type model for the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Modelling of spatial infection spread through heterogeneous population: from lattice to partial differential equation models.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Lockdown measures and their impact on single- and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2: The Second Wave in Europe.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021Article
- Covid-19: predictive mathematical formulae for the number of deaths during lockdown and possible scenarios for the post-lockdown period.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2021Article
- Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: From lockdown to vaccination.PloS one · 2021Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.
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