Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33712596›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana.

Alessio Andronico, Cécile Tran Kiem, Juliette Paireau, Tiphanie Succo, Paolo Bosetti, Noémie Lefrancq, Mathieu Nacher, Félix Djossou, Alice Sanna, Claude Flamand and 3 more

Abstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023
    Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in French Guiana in 2020-2021: 4 epidemic waves with cross-influences from Europe and South America.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2022
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021
    Article
  20. The effect of weekend curfews on epidemics: a Monte Carlo simulation.Turkish journal of biology = Turk biyoloji dergisi · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Alessio Andronico *Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France. alessio.andronico@pasteur.fr.ORCID 0000-0002-3542-7245
Cécile Tran Kiem *Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0003-0563-8428
Juliette PaireauMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5143-6256
Tiphanie SuccoSanté Publique France Guyane, French National Public Health Agency, Cayenne, France.
Paolo BosettiMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Noémie LefrancqMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0001-5991-6169
Mathieu NacherCentre d'Investigation Clinique Antilles Guyane, CIC INSERM 1424, Centre Hospitalier Andrée Rosemon, Cayenne, France.
Félix DjossouService des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Cayenne, France.
Alice SannaAgence Régionale de Santé de Guyane, Cayenne, France.
Claude FlamandMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-8064-445X
Henrik SaljeMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0003-3626-4254
Cyril RousseauSanté Publique France Guyane, French National Public Health Agency, Cayenne, France.
Simon CauchemezMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0001-9186-4549

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.

Indexed as

PandemicsSARS-CoV-2AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBasic Reproduction NumberChildChild, PreschoolCOVID-19FemaleFrench GuianaHospitalizationHumansInfantInfant, Newborn

Identifiers

PMID33712596
PMCPMC7955077

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.