Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33710281›Full record

ArticleAge and ageing2021

COVID-19 infection and attributable mortality in UK care homes: cohort study using active surveillance and electronic records (March-June 2020).

Peter F Dutey-Magni, Haydn Williams, Arnoupe Jhass, Greta Rait, Fabiana Lorencatto, Harry Hemingway, Andrew Hayward, Laura Shallcross

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Age and ageing, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
52citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
18.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

52 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 74 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Peter F Dutey-MagniInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, NW1 2DA, London, UK.
Haydn WilliamsFour Seasons Health Care Group, SK9 1BU, Cheshire, UK.
Arnoupe JhassInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, NW1 2DA, London, UK.
Greta RaitPrimary Care & Population Health, University College London, NW3 2PF, London, UK.
Fabiana LorencattoCentre for Behaviour Change, University College London, WC1E 7HB, London, UK.
Harry HemingwayInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, NW1 2DA, London, UK.
Andrew HaywardInstitute of Epidemiology & Health Care, University College London, WC1E 7HB, London, UK.
Laura ShallcrossInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, NW1 2DA, London, UK.
University College London · GB

Funding

British Heart FoundationHHSMedical Research Council MC_PC_13041Medical Research Council MR/K006584/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundepidemiological data on COVID-19 infection in care homes are scarce. We analysed data from a large provider of long-term care for older people to investigate infection and mortality during the first wave of the pandemic.

methodscohort study of 179 UK care homes with 9,339 residents and 11,604 staff. We used manager-reported daily tallies to estimate the incidence of suspected and confirmed infection and mortality in staff and residents. Individual-level electronic health records from 8,713 residents were used to model risk factors for confirmed infection, mortality and estimate attributable mortality.

results2,075/9,339 residents developed COVID-19 symptoms (22.2% [95% confidence interval: 21.4%; 23.1%]), while 951 residents (10.2% [9.6%; 10.8%]) and 585 staff (5.0% [4.7%; 5.5%]) had laboratory-confirmed infections. The incidence of confirmed infection was 152.6 [143.1; 162.6] and 62.3 [57.3; 67.5] per 100,000 person-days in residents and staff, respectively. Sixty-eight percent (121/179) of care homes had at least one COVID-19 infection or COVID-19-related death. Lower staffing ratios and higher occupancy rates were independent risk factors for infection.Out of 607 residents with confirmed infection, 217 died (case fatality rate: 35.7% [31.9%; 39.7%]). Mortality in residents with no direct evidence of infection was twofold higher in care homes with outbreaks versus those without (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2 [1.8; 2.6]).

conclusionsfindings suggest many deaths occurred in people who were infected with COVID-19, but not tested. Higher occupancy and lower staffing levels were independently associated with risks of infection. Protecting staff and residents from infection requires regular testing for COVID-19 and fundamental changes to staffing and care home occupancy.

Indexed as

COVID-19AgedCohort StudiesCOVID-19 TestingElectronicsHumansNursing HomesSARS-CoV-2United KingdomWatchful WaitingCOVID-19long-term caremorbiditymortalityolder peopleSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33710281
PMCPMC7989651
OpenAlexW3134846753

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.