ArticleScientific reports2021
Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Behaviourally-Informed Two-Way Text Messaging to Improve Return to HIV Care in South Africa: Evidence from a Randomised Controlled Trial.AIDS and behavior · 2025Trial
- Predictors of Treatment Adherence and Virological Failure Among People Living with HIV Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in a South African Rural Community: A Sub-study of the ITREMA Randomised Clinical Trial.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- HIV diagnosis and treatment status in individuals dying from HIV in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and South Africa: A model comparison analysis.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- The Impact of a Household Intervention on ART Adherence and Household HIV Competency for People Living with HIV: Results from a Cluster-Randomised Controlled Trial in Cape Town, South Africa.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Identifying priority populations for HIV interventions using acquisition and transmission indicators: a combined analysis of 15 mathematical models from ten African countries.The lancet. HIV · 2026Article
- Identifying gaps in the HIV treatment cascade in Africa: a model comparison study.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Article
- Provision of HIV testing services and its impact on the HIV positivity rate in the public health sector in KwaZulu-Natal: a ten-year review.SAHARA J : journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance · 2024Review
- Transgender-Specific Differentiated HIV Service Delivery Models in the South African Public Primary Health Care System (Jabula Uzibone): Protocol for an Implementation Study.JMIR research protocols · 2024Article
- Depression: an individual-level early warning indicator of virologic failure in HIV patients in South Africa.Public health action · 2024Article
- Cox proportional hazard-model application: time to cervical cancer screening among women living with HIV in South Africa.Infectious agents and cancer · 2024Article
- Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- "This is an illness. No one is supposed to be treated badly": community-based stigma assessments in South Africa to inform tuberculosis stigma intervention design.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Pilot Testing Two Versions of a Social Network Intervention to Increase HIV Testing and Case-finding among Men in South Africa's Generalized HIV Epidemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Primary health care providers' views on managing substance use among people living with HIV.African journal of primary health care & family medicine · 2023Article
- Black Women's Perceptions Towards Infant and Child Male Circumcision.Maternal and child health journal · 2023Article
- Does a youth intern programme strengthen HIV service delivery in South Africa? An interrupted time-series analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Noncommunicable Disease Conditions and HIV in Rural and Urban South Africa: 2005-2015.Ethnicity & disease · 2023Article
- Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Article
- Outcomes of a model for re-testing HIV-negative index contacts in Sedibeng, South Africa.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2023Article
- Thrombotic thrombocytopaenic purpura in the era of HIV: A single-centre experience.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.