Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33706738›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2021

UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records.

Jemma L Walker, Daniel J Grint, Helen Strongman, Rosalind M Eggo, Maria Peppa, Caroline Minassian, Kathryn E Mansfield, Christopher T Rentsch, Ian J Douglas, Rohini Mathur and 8 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.9field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 37 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Red Blood Cell Distribution Width Is Not a Predictor of Hospital Mortality in Elderly and Nonelderly COVID-19-Infected Patients: A Prospective Study at a Brazilian Quaternary University Hospital.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025
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  20. Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Jemma L WalkerNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Daniel J GrintNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Helen StrongmanLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Rosalind M EggoLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Maria PeppaNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Caroline MinassianLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Kathryn E MansfieldLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Christopher T RentschLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Ian J DouglasLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Rohini MathurLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Angel Y S WongLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Jennifer K QuintImperial College London, South Kensington, London, SW7 2BU, UK.
Nick AndrewsNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Jamie Lopez BernalNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
J Anthony ScottNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Mary RamsayNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Liam SmeethNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK.
Helen I McDonaldNIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Immunisation, London, UK. helen.mcdonald@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-0576-2015
University of London · GBUniversity of Liverpool · GBImperial College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19065Medical Research Council MR/R010161/1Medical Research Council MR/S003975/1Medical Research Council MR/S019669/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCharacterising the size and distribution of the population at risk of severe COVID-19 is vital for effective policy and planning. Older age, and underlying health conditions, are associated with higher risk of death from COVID-19. This study aimed to describe the population at risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions across the United Kingdom.

methodsWe used anonymised electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD to estimate the point prevalence on 5 March 2019 of the at-risk population following national guidance. Prevalence for any risk condition and for each individual condition is given overall and stratified by age and region with binomial exact confidence intervals. We repeated the analysis on 5 March 2014 for full regional representation and to describe prevalence of underlying health conditions in pregnancy. We additionally described the population of cancer survivors, and assessed the value of linked secondary care records for ascertaining COVID-19 at-risk status.

resultsOn 5 March 2019, 24.4% of the UK population were at risk due to a record of at least one underlying health condition, including 8.3% of school-aged children, 19.6% of working-aged adults, and 66.2% of individuals aged 70 years or more. 7.1% of the population had multimorbidity. The size of the at-risk population was stable over time comparing 2014 to 2019, despite increases in chronic liver disease and diabetes and decreases in chronic kidney disease and current asthma. Separately, 1.6% of the population had a new diagnosis of cancer in the past 5 y.

conclusionsThe population at risk of severe COVID-19 (defined as either aged ≥70 years, or younger with an underlying health condition) comprises 18.5 million individuals in the UK, including a considerable proportion of school-aged and working-aged individuals. Our national estimates broadly support the use of Global Burden of Disease modelled estimates in other countries. We provide age- and region- stratified prevalence for each condition to support effective modelling of public health interventions and planning of vaccine resource allocation. The high prevalence of health conditions among older age groups suggests that age-targeted vaccination strategies may efficiently target individuals at higher risk of severe COVID-19.

Indexed as

Health StatusAdolescentAdultAgedAge FactorsChildChronic DiseaseCOVID-19Electronic Health RecordsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMultimorbidityPregnancyPrevalenceCOVID-19Electronic health recordsPrevalenceRisk factorsUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID33706738
PMCPMC7948667
OpenAlexW3081161032

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.