ArticleNature communications2021
Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impacts of long-term climate change on human health: a global scoping review of quantitative research.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Article
- Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Mapping inequity: spatial clustering of malaria in pregnancy in the Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia (2018-2024).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Evaluating Natural Larvicides: Peppermint and Pepper Extracts versus Temephos onJournal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2025Article
- High connectivity and low differentiation of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in a setting with high seasonal migration.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Review
- High connectivity and low differentiation of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in a setting with high seasonal migration.Research square · 2025Article
- Impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa: A scoping review of literature.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Review
- Non-Invasive Malaria Detection in Sub-Saharan Africa Using a DNA-Based Sensor System.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024Article
- Possible potential spread of Anopheles stephensi, the Asian malaria vector.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Determinants of persistent malaria transmission in the Arjo-Didessa farm area in Ethiopia.Southern African journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Space-time modelling of monthly malaria incidence for seasonal associated drivers and early epidemic detection in Southern Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections.Science advances · 2023Article
- El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Epidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.Nature communications · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.
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