ArticleEpidemiology and infection2021
Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluation of respiratory disease hospitalisation forecasts using synthetic outbreak data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast.Viruses · 2022Article
- Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?Biometrics · 2022Article
- Stringency of containment and closures on the growth of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada prior to accelerated vaccine roll-out.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Changepoint Detection in Noisy Data Using a Novel Residuals Permutation-Based Method (RESPERM): Benchmarking and Application to Single Trial ERPs.Brain sciences · 2022Article
- Regression Analysis for COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Based on Food Access and Health Issues.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic.Advances in statistical analysis : AStA : a journal of the German Statistical Society · 2022Article
- Influence of transportation network on transmission heterogeneity of COVID-19 in China.Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
We analysed the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic curve from March to the end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time series are analysed by a trend regression model with change points. The change points are estimated directly from the data. We carry out the analysis for the whole of Germany and the federal state of Bavaria, where we have more detailed data. Both analyses show a major change between 9 and 13 March for the time series of infections: from a strong increase to a decrease. Another change was found between 25 March and 29 March, where the decline intensified. Furthermore, we perform an analysis stratified by age. A main result is a delayed course of the pandemic for the age group 80 + resulting in a turning point at the end of March. Our results differ from those by other authors as we take into account the reporting delay, which turned out to be time dependent and therefore changes the structure of the epidemic curve compared to the curve of newly reported cases.
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