ArticlePsychiatric services (Washington, D.C.)2021
Reconciling Statistical and Clinicians' Predictions of Suicide Risk.
Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph
Article in Psychiatric services (Washington, D.C.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed
3.7field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 44 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk Model-Guided Clinical Decision Support for Suicide Screening: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2025Trial
- External validation, recalibration and updating of the OxSATS risk model for suicide after self-harm in England.BMJ mental health · 2026Article
- Article
- Clinician-documented Firearm Access and Safety Interventions for Veterans Receiving Suicide Risk Evaluation in VA Emergency Care Settings.The western journal of emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Combining Machine Learning Models and Screening to Enhance Suicide Risk Identification for American Indian Patients: Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Observational
- An AI-based mental health guardrail and dataset for identifying psychiatric crises in text-based conversations.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Predicting and differentiating opioid and non-opioid drug poisonings using health records data.Journal of substance use and addiction treatment · 2026Article
- Predicting and Preventing Suicide at Entry to Mental Health Care: A Community-Engaged, Machine Learning Model Implementation.NEJM catalyst innovations in care delivery · 2026Article
- Clinical guidelines on self-harm and suicide prevention: taking uncertainty into account in the evidence base.BMJ mental health · 2026Article
- Predicting and differentiating accidental and self-harm drug poisonings using health records data.PLOS mental health · 2026Article
- Article
- Continuous time and dynamic suicide attempt risk prediction with neural ordinary differential equations.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- AI-Y: An AI Checklist for Population Ethics Across the Global Context.Current epidemiology reports · 2025Review
- Review
- Automatically extracting social determinants of health for suicide: a narrative literature review.Npj mental health research · 2024Review
- Determining Distinct Suicide Attempts From Recurrent Electronic Health Record Codes: Classification Study.JMIR formative research · 2024Article
- Large-scale Text Mining of Suicide Attempt improves Identification of Distinct Suicidal Events in Electronic Health Records.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2024Article
- External Validation and Updating of a Statistical Civilian-Based Suicide Risk Model in US Naval Primary Care.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- Health Service Protection vis-à-vis the Detection of Psychosocial Risks of Suicide during the Years 2019-2021.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Balancing the Roles of Clinicians and Police in Separating Firearms from People in a Dangerous Mental Health Crisis: Legal Rules, Policy Tools, and Ethical Considerations.The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Gregory E SimonKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Bridget B MatarazzoKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Colin G WalshKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Jordan W SmollerKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Edwin D BoudreauxKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Bobbi Jo H YarboroughKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Susan M ShortreedKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
R Yates ColeyKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Brian K AhmedaniKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Riddhi P DoshiKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Leah I HarrisKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Michael SchoenbaumKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle (Simon, Shortreed, Coley); Department of Veterans Affairs Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, and Department of Psychiatry, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora (Matarazzo); Department of Medicine and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (Walsh); Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (Smoller); Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Psychiatry, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester (Boudreaux); Kaiser Permanente Northwest Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon (Yarborough); Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle (Shortreed, Coley); Center for Health Policy and Health Services Research, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (Ahmedani); Department of Community Medicine and Healthcare, University of Connecticut, Farmington (Doshi); Shifa Consulting, Arlington, Virginia (Harris); Division of Services and Intervention Research, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Schoenbaum).
Department of Veterans Affairs · AU
Funding
NIH Health Care Systems Research Collaboratory-Coordinating Center (U24)U24AT009676 · NCCIH · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI LESLEY H CURTIS, Adrian Hernandez · 2017 to 2026
$21.5MSSRI's and SuicidalityU19MH092201 · NIMH · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI SIMON, GREGORY E. · 2010 to 2018
$19.5MWhose Depression Are We Measuring?: Considering the role of place on Black women’s depression outcomesU19MH121738 · NIMH · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI SIMON, GREGORY E. · 2019 to 2023
$10.6MPragmatic Trial of Population-based Programs to Prevent Suicide AttemptUH3MH007755 · NIMH · KAISER FOUNDATION HEALTH PLAN OF WASHINGTON · PI SIMON, GREGORY E. · 2014 to 2018
$8.9MImproved tailoring of depression care using customized clinical decision supportR01MH114873 · NIMH · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI MOODIE, ERICA, SHORTREED, SUSAN M · 2018 to 2021
$1.5MNCCIH NIH HHS U24 AT009676NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH114873NIMH NIH HHS U19 MH092201NIMH NIH HHS U19 MH121738NIMH NIH HHS UH3 MH007755
Abstract
Statistical models, including those based on electronic health records, can accurately identify patients at high risk for a suicide attempt or death, leading to implementation of risk prediction models for population-based suicide prevention in health systems. However, some have questioned whether statistical predictions can really inform clinical decisions. Appropriately reconciling statistical algorithms with traditional clinician assessment depends on whether predictions from these two methods are competing, complementary, or merely duplicative. In June 2019, the National Institute of Mental Health convened a meeting, "Identifying Research Priorities for Risk Algorithms Applications in Healthcare Settings to Improve Suicide Prevention." Here, participants of this meeting summarize key issues regarding the potential clinical application of suicide prediction models. The authors attempt to clarify the key conceptual and technical differences between traditional risk prediction by clinicians and predictions from statistical models, review the limited evidence regarding both the accuracy of and the concordance between these alternative methods of prediction, present a conceptual framework for understanding agreement and disagreement between statistical and clinician predictions, identify priorities for improving data regarding suicide risk, and propose priority questions for future research. Future suicide risk assessment will likely combine statistical prediction with traditional clinician assessment, but research is needed to determine the optimal combination of these two methods.
Indexed as
Models, StatisticalSuicide, AttemptedAlgorithmsElectronic Health RecordsForecastingHumansRisk AssessmentEpidemiologyMachine learningPrediction modelsStatistical modelingSuicide and self-destructive behavior
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