Trial reportPloS one2021
Prediction of COPD risk accounting for time-varying smoking exposures.
Trial report in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Comparative disease risks associated with cigarette smoking and use of moist smokeless tobacco and snus: an umbrella review of epidemiological evidence from the United States and Western Europe.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- The validity of electronic health data for measuring smoking status: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Pooled it
- Cigarette Smoke Induces the Pro-inflammatory Response of Lung Macrophages via Activation of the IL-33/ST2-Dependent Pathway.Immune network · 2026Article
- Model-based algorithms to ascertain smoking in administrative health data: a registry-based validation study.BMC medical research methodology · 2026Article
- E-cigarette Duration and Incident COPD Among Adults Aged 40 Years and Older with a Smoking History.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Mortality and morbidity burden associated with smoking: evidence from a 1.6 million cohort in Hong Kong.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- An interpretable ensemble learning framework for COPD classification using population-based clinical and laboratory data from NHANES.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Trends and Projections of PMInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Article
- Observational studies of exposure to tobacco and nicotine products: Best practices for maximizing statistical precision and accuracy.iScience · 2025Review
- Polyphyllin B inhibited STAT3/NCOA4 pathway and restored gut microbiota to ameliorate lung tissue injury in cigarette smoke-induced mice.BMC biotechnology · 2024Article
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease related to wood smoke and impact of the combined exposure to tobacco.IJTLD open · 2024Article
- Association between cigar use, with and without cigarettes, and incident diagnosed COPD: a longitudinal cohort study.Respiratory research · 2024Article
- A pathological convergence theory for non-communicable diseases.Aging medicine (Milton (N.S.W)) · 2023Review
- A bronchial gene signature specific for severe COPD that is retained in the nose.ERJ open research · 2023Article
- Identification of predictive factors for early relapse in patients with unresectable stage III non-small cell lung cancer receiving consolidation durvalumab after concurrent chemoradiation therapy.Thoracic cancer · 2023Article
- Cigarettes, ENDS Use, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Incidence: A Prospective Longitudinal Study.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories by Race and Ethnicity in the U.S.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories in Brazil.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- The Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence, as a prognostic factor, in current smokers with and without COPD: A cross-sectional study in northern Greece.Chronic respiratory diseaseArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
rationaleChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Studies have primarily assessed the relationship between smoking on COPD risk focusing on summary measures, like smoking status.
objectiveDevelop a COPD risk prediction model incorporating individual time-varying smoking exposures.
methodsThe Nurses' Health Study (N = 86,711) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (N = 39,817) data was used to develop a COPD risk prediction model. Data was randomly split in 50-50 samples for model building and validation. Cox regression with time-varying covariates was used to assess the association between smoking duration, intensity and year-since-quit and self-reported COPD diagnosis incidence. We evaluated the model calibration as well as discriminatory accuracy via the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). We computed 6-year risk of COPD incidence given various individual smoking scenarios.
resultsSmoking duration, year-since-quit (if former smokers), sex, and interaction of sex and smoking duration are significantly associated with the incidence of diagnosed COPD. The model that incorporated time-varying smoking variables yielded higher AUCs compared to models using only pack-years. The AUCs for the model were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70-0.77) for males and females, respectively.
conclusionsUtilizing detailed smoking pattern information, the model predicts COPD risk with better accuracy than models based on only smoking summary measures. It might serve as a tool for early detection programs by identifying individuals at high-risk for COPD.
Indexed as
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.