ArticleBJS open2021
COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model.
Article in BJS open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Epidemiological Pattern of Traumatic Brain Injury in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.World neurosurgery · 2022Pooled it
- The lifetime risk of surgery in England: a nationwide observational cohort study.British journal of anaesthesia · 2024Observational
- Optimizing Surgical Care Amidst COVID-19: A Scoping Review of Practices and Policies.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Safe Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Current obesity reports · 2022Review
- Health Care Workers' Sick Leave due to COVID-19 Vaccination in Context With SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Quarantine-A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Survey.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Lockdown surgery: the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 measures on cardiac cases.Interactive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery · 2022Observational
- A survey among physicians in surgery and anesthesiology departments after the first surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany : Preparing for further challenges ahead.Wiener klinische Wochenschrift · 2022Review
- Did COVID-19 affect scientific journals as it affected Surgery ? SODA as new way to exchange.Surgery open digestive advance · 2022Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Stoma Surgery and Stoma Clinic Service: A Retrospective Study at a Single Japanese Referral Hospital.International journal of clinical practice · 2022Article
- Impact of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination on postoperative mortality in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection.BJS open · 2021Article
- Global wealth disparities drive adherence to COVID-safe pathways in head and neck cancer surgery.BJS open · 2021Article
- Prevalence of, and factors associated with, long-term COVID-19 sick leave in working-age patients followed in general practices in Germany.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Article
- COVID-19 in Women's health reducing the risk of infection to patients and staff during acute and elective hospital admission for gynaecological surgery.Best practice & research. Clinical obstetrics & gynaecology · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDuring the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks.
methodsAn international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent).
resultsBased on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7-12, this decreased to 9.2-13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19.
conclusionThis framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity.
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