ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2021
Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 469 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
469 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Global maternal mortality associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ global health · 2025Pooled it
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- Risk of COVID-19 death for people with a pre-existing cancer diagnosis prior to COVID-19-vaccination: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Effect of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on survival free of organ support in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (ACTIV-4a): a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, platform trial.The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2024Trial
- Effect of P2Y12 Inhibitors on Organ Support-Free Survival in Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2023Trial
- Safety and Efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine at Completion of the Placebo-Controlled Phase of a Randomized Controlled Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Trial
- Explaining complex dynamical systems using conditional SHAP analysis with application to multi-variant epidemic dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- [Performance of prognostic scores during the first and second waves of COVID-19 pneumonia]Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina) · 2026Article
- Lessons from Two Early COVID-19 Hospital Outbreaks in Germany to Inform Strategies for Controlling Emerging Nosocomial Outbreaks of Highly Transmissible Respiratory Viruses.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- A tale of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Mali: Variants introductions and transmission dynamics.PloS one · 2026Article
- Determinants of success and failure of antibody-based strategies against respiratory viruses: insights from RSV and SARS-CoV-2.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Resistance of endothelial cells to SARS-CoV-2 infectionJournal of virology · 2025Article
- Review
- A public health perspective of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and surveillance strategies in Germany from 2020 to 2023.Communications medicine · 2025Review
- Diagnostic accuracy of visual triage checklist in early recognition of COVID-19 cases in the pediatric population: A retrospective cohort study.BMC pediatrics · 2025Article
- Article
- Quasi-species prevalence and clinical impact of evolving SARS-CoV-2 lineages in European COVID-19 cohorts, January 2020 to February 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- 9-aminominocycline potentiates the efficacy of EIDD-1931 and PF-332 by targeting the papain like protease enzyme of SARS-CoV-2.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Intranasally administrated fusion-inhibitory lipopeptides block SARS-CoV-2 infection in mice and enable long-term protective immunity.Communications biology · 2025Article
409 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo establish whether there is any change in mortality from infection with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, designated a variant of concern (VOC-202012/1) in December 2020, compared with circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
designMatched cohort study.
settingCommunity based (pillar 2) covid-19 testing centres in the UK using the TaqPath assay (a proxy measure of VOC-202012/1 infection).
participants54 906 matched pairs of participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in pillar 2 between 1 October 2020 and 29 January 2021, followed-up until 12 February 2021. Participants were matched on age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation, lower tier local authority region, and sample date of positive specimens, and differed only by detectability of the spike protein gene using the TaqPath assay.
main outcome measureDeath within 28 days of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test result.
resultsThe mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases.
conclusionsThe probability that the risk of mortality is increased by infection with VOC-202012/01 is high. If this finding is generalisable to other populations, infection with VOC-202012/1 has the potential to cause substantial additional mortality compared with previously circulating variants. Healthcare capacity planning and national and international control policies are all impacted by this finding, with increased mortality lending weight to the argument that further coordinated and stringent measures are justified to reduce deaths from SARS-CoV-2.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.