ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2021
Development of a model to predict the probability of incurring a complication during spine surgery.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk factors for adjacent segment disease after lateral lumbar interbody fusion for lumbar spinal canal stenosis with instability.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026Article
- Risk prediction in spine surgery: a scoping review of traditional models, artificial intelligence, and the challenge of clinical translation.Spine deformity · 2026Review
- Acute complications in open/miss primary and revision thoracolumbar spine surgery: a descriptive study of the most common complications and treatment of choice.International orthopaedics · 2024Article
- SPINE20 recommendations 2023: One Earth, one family, one future WITHOUT spine DISABILITY.Brain & spine · 2023Review
- 3D visualization and morphometric analysis of spinal motion segments and vascular networks: A synchrotron radiation-based micro-CT study in mice.Journal of anatomy · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposePredictive models in spine surgery are of use in shared decision-making. This study sought to develop multivariable models to predict the probability of general and surgical perioperative complications of spinal surgery for lumbar degenerative diseases.
methodsData came from EUROSPINE's Spine Tango Registry (1.2012-12.2017). Separate prediction models were built for surgical and general complications. Potential predictors included age, gender, previous spine surgery, additional pathology, BMI, smoking status, morbidity, prophylaxis, technology used, and the modified Mirza invasiveness index score. Complete case multiple logistic regression was used. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Plots were used to assess the calibration of the models.
resultsOverall, 23'714/68'111 patients (54.6%) were available for complete case analysis: 763 (3.2%) had a general complication, with ASA score being strongly predictive (ASA-2 OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.20-2.12; ASA-3 OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.19-4.07; ASA-4 OR 5.62, 95% CI 3.04-10.41), while 2534 (10.7%) had a surgical complication, with previous surgery at the same level being an important predictor (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.71-2.12). Respectively, model AUCs were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.65), and calibration was good up to predicted probabilities of 0.30 and 0.25, respectively.
conclusionWe developed two models to predict complications associated with spinal surgery. Surgical complications were predicted with less discriminative ability than general complications. Reoperation at the same level was strongly predictive of surgical complications and a higher ASA score, of general complications. A web-based prediction tool was developed at https://sst.webauthor.com/go/fx/run.cfm?fx=SSTCalculator .
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