Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33684415›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental research2021

Influence of temperature, and of relative and absolute humidity on COVID-19 incidence in England - A multi-city time-series study.

Luise N Nottmeyer, Francesco Sera

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  15. Effects of fine particulate matter (PMCase studies in chemical and environmental engineering · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Environment and COVID-19 incidence: A critical review.Journal of environmental sciences (China) · 2023
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Possibility of the COVID-19 third wave in India: mapping from second wave to third wave.Indian journal of physics and proceedings of the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (2004) · 2023
    Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Luise N NottmeyerFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: luise.nottmeyer1@alumni.lshtm.ac.uk.
Francesco SeraFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R013349/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSARS-CoV-2 caused the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The virus is likely to show seasonal dynamics in European climates as other respiratory viruses and coronaviruses do. Analysing the association with meteorological factors might be helpful to anticipate how cases will develop with changing seasons.

methodsRoutinely measured ambient daily mean temperature, absolute humidity, and relative humidity were the explanatory variables of this analysis. Test-positive COVID-19 cases represented the outcome variable. The analysis included 54 English cities. A two-stage meta-regression was conducted. At the first stage, we used a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model including distributed lag non-linear elements. Thereby, we investigate the explanatory variables' non-linear effects as well as the non-linear effects across lags.

resultsThis study found a non-linear association of COVID-19 cases with temperature. At 11.9°C there was 1.62-times (95%-CI: 1.44; 1.81) the risk of cases compared to the temperature-level with the smallest risk (21.8°C). Absolute humidity exhibited a 1.61-times (95%-CI: 1.41; 1.83) elevated risk at 6.6 g/m

conclusionThe analysis suggests that in England meteorological variables likely influence COVID-19 case development. These results reinforce the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., social distancing and mask use) during all seasons, especially with cold and dry weather conditions.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsChinaCitiesEnglandHumansHumidityIncidenceSARS-CoV-2TemperatureCOVID-19Distributed lag non-linear modelHumidityMeta-analysisTemperature

Identifiers

PMID33684415
PMCPMC7935674

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.