ArticleJournal of family medicine and primary care2020
Temporal analysis of visceral leishmaniasis between 2000 and 2019 in Ardabil Province, Iran: A time-series study using ARIMA model.
Article in Journal of family medicine and primary care, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundVisceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) also known as kala-azar is a neglected disease of humans that mainly occurs in more than 50 countries mostly located in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Northern America.
objectiveThe purpose of this study was to determine the temporal patterns and predict of occurrence of VL in Ardabil Province, in northwestern Iran using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.
methodsThis descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 602 cases of VLH in the province between January 2000 to December 2019, which was provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system. The monthly occurrences case constructed the ARIMA model of time-series model. The insignificance of the correlation in the lags of 12, 24 and 36 months, and Chi-square test showed the occurrence of VLH does not have a seasonal pattern. Eleven potential ARIMA models were examined for VLH cases. Finally, the best model was selected with the lower Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value. Then, the selected model was used to forecast frequency of monthly occurrences case. The forecasting precision was estimated by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Data analysis was performed using Stata14 and its package time series analysis.
resultsARIMA (5, 0, 1) model with AIC (25.7) and BIC (43.35) was selected. The MAPE value was 26.89% and the portmanteau test for white noise was (Q = 23.02,
conclusionThe ARIMA (5, 0, 1) model can be a useful tool to predict VLH cases as early warning system and the results are helpful for policy makers and primary care physicians in the readiness of public health problems before the outbreak of the disease.
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