ArticleJournal of optimization theory and applications2021
Optimal Immunity Control and Final Size Minimization by Social Distancing for the SIR Epidemic Model.
Article in Journal of optimization theory and applications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- How best can finite-time social distancing reduce epidemic final size?Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
The aim of this article is to understand how to apply partial or total containment to SIR epidemic model during a given finite time interval in order to minimize the epidemic final size, that is the cumulative number of cases infected during the complete course of an epidemic. The existence and uniqueness of an optimal strategy are proved for this infinite-horizon problem, and a full characterization of the solution is provided. The best policy consists in applying the maximal allowed social distancing effort until the end of the interval, starting at a date that is not always the closest date and may be found by a simple algorithm. Both theoretical results and numerical simulations demonstrate that it leads to a significant decrease in the epidemic final size. We show that in any case the optimal intervention has to begin before the number of susceptible cases has crossed the herd immunity level, and that its limit is always smaller than this threshold. This problem is also shown to be equivalent to the minimum containment time necessary to stop at a given distance after this threshold value.
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